Matchday 28 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 5, 2016
Real Madrid 7–1 Celta: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Celta 7–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Madrid win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 7 | 1.92 |
 Celta Vigo | 1 | 1.40 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Real Madrid about even · −21 Celta
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 7, 2 end level, Celta win 1.
- 1 RMA 2 CEL 1
- 2 RMA 2 CEL 1
- 3 RMA 2 CEL 0
- 4 RMA 2 CEL 0
- 5 RMA 4 CEL 1
- 6 RMA 4 CEL 0
- 7 RMA 5 CEL 0
- 8 RMA 1 CEL 1
- 9 RMA 1 CEL 1
- 10 RMA 1 CEL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Madrid win 71%, 16% end level, Celta win 13%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 6.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 30.1% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 19.4% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 21.3% |
| Draw | 15.8% |
| Celta by 1 | 8.6% |
| Celta by 2 | 3.5% |
| Celta by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 20 | 7 | 1.92 | +5.08 |
 Celta | 8 | 1 | 1.40 | −0.40 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 40' | Kléper Laveran Lima Ferreira scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 49' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 57' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a free kick | 0.05 |
| 61' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shot | 0.52 |
| 63' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.87 |
| 75' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 76' | Jesé Rodríguez Ruiz scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 80' | Gareth Frank Bale scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +7% RMA |
| 2 | 13' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +8% RMA |
| 3 | 20' | Francisco Román Alarcón Suárez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +5% CEL |
| 4 | 39' | Carlos Henrique Casimiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% CEL |
| 5 | 40' | Kléper Laveran Lima Ferreira scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +27% RMA |
| 6 | 43' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +2% RMA |
| 7 | 49' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +11% RMA |
| 8 | 57' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +2% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Madrid 92% · draw 6% · Celta 2%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 6
- Luck in goals
- 4.1 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Madrid 71% · draw 16% · Celta 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Deportivo 3–3 Málaga Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Sevilla Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Villarreal 0–1 Las Palmas Mar 5, 2016 · replay 42% for Las Palmas
- Valencia 1–3 Atlético Mar 6, 2016 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Betis 2–0 Granada Mar 6, 2016 · replay 58% for Betis
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Levante Mar 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Sporting 0–2 Athletic Mar 6, 2016 · replay 80% for Athletic
- Eibar 0–4 Barcelona Mar 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 2–1 Rayo Mar 7, 2016 · replay 89% for Espanyol