Matchday 28 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 6, 2016
Valencia 1–3 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Valencia 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Atlético win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 1 | 0.50 |
 Atlético Madrid | 3 | 1.99 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Atlético about even · −17 Valencia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 1, 2 end level, Atlético win 7.
- 1 VAL 1 ATM 0
- 2 VAL 2 ATM 2
- 3 VAL 0 ATM 0
- 4 VAL 0 ATM 4
- 5 VAL 0 ATM 3
- 6 VAL 0 ATM 3
- 7 VAL 2 ATM 4
- 8 VAL 0 ATM 2
- 9 VAL 1 ATM 2
- 10 VAL 0 ATM 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 8%, 18% end level, Atlético win 74%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 0.2% |
| Valencia by 2 | 1.3% |
| Valencia by 1 | 6.5% |
| Draw | 18.3% |
| Atlético by 1 | 24.5% |
| Atlético by 2 | 21.3% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 27.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 10 | 1 | 0.50 | +0.50 |
 Atlético | 21 | 3 | 1.99 | +1.01 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 23' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 27' | Denis Cheryshev scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 71' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shot | 0.59 |
| 84' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | José María Giménez de Vargas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% VAL |
| 2 | 23' | The game turned hereAntoine Griezmann scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +26% ATM |
| 3 | 27' | Denis Cheryshev scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +25% VAL |
| 4 | 32' | Luciano Vietto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% VAL |
| 5 | 58' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% ATM |
| 6 | 68' | Saúl Ñíguez Esclapez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% VAL |
| 7 | 71' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shotFinishing · 59% chance | +17% ATM |
| 8 | 84' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 2% · draw 7% · Atlético 91%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 8% · draw 18% · Atlético 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Deportivo 3–3 Málaga Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Sevilla Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Villarreal 0–1 Las Palmas Mar 5, 2016 · replay 42% for Las Palmas
- Real Madrid 7–1 Celta Mar 5, 2016 · replay 79% for Real Madrid
- Betis 2–0 Granada Mar 6, 2016 · replay 58% for Betis
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Levante Mar 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Sporting 0–2 Athletic Mar 6, 2016 · replay 80% for Athletic
- Eibar 0–4 Barcelona Mar 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 2–1 Rayo Mar 7, 2016 · replay 89% for Espanyol