Matchday 30 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 18, 2016
Getafe 1–1 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Getafe and Eibar drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Getafe win 1 of 10, Eibar 7, and 2 end level. Eibar made the better chances: 2.8 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 1 | 0.67 |
 Eibar | 1 | 2.76 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 Getafe lucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 1, 2 end level, Eibar win 7.
- 1 GET 1 EIB 0
- 2 GET 0 EIB 0
- 3 GET 2 EIB 2
- 4 GET 1 EIB 6
- 5 GET 0 EIB 3
- 6 GET 0 EIB 3
- 7 GET 2 EIB 4
- 8 GET 1 EIB 3
- 9 GET 1 EIB 2
- 10 GET 0 EIB 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 10%, 17% end level, Eibar win 73%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 0.6% |
| Getafe by 2 | 2.3% |
| Getafe by 1 | 7.1% |
| Draw | 17.3% |
| Eibar by 1 | 22.0% |
| Eibar by 2 | 21.6% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 29.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 8 | 1 | 0.67 | +0.33 |
 Eibar | 20 | 1 | 2.76 | −1.76 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Emiliano Daniel Velázquez Maldonado scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 19' | Adrián González Morales didn’t score from a shot | 0.59 |
| 86' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shot | 0.45 |
| 89' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Emiliano Daniel Velázquez Maldonado scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +20% GET |
| 2 | 11' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +6% GET |
| 3 | 19' | Adrián González Morales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 59% chance | +14% GET |
| 4 | 37' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% GET |
| 5 | 51' | Takashi Inui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% GET |
| 6 | 86' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +26% EIB |
| 7 | 89' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +19% GET |
| 8 | 89' | Sergio Enrich Ametller didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% GET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 4% · draw 11% · Eibar 85%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Getafe
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eibar by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 10% · draw 17% · Eibar 73% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 30 matches, 2015-16 · Getafe · Eibar
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