Matchday 30 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 19, 2016
Granada 2–2 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Granada and Rayo drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Granada win 4 of 10, Rayo 4, and 2 end level. Rayo made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Granada | 2 | 1.36 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 1.78 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Granada about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Granada win 4, 2 end level, Rayo win 4.
- 1 GRA 1 RAY 0
- 2 GRA 3 RAY 2
- 3 GRA 2 RAY 0
- 4 GRA 3 RAY 0
- 5 GRA 0 RAY 0
- 6 GRA 2 RAY 2
- 7 GRA 0 RAY 3
- 8 GRA 0 RAY 2
- 9 GRA 1 RAY 2
- 10 GRA 1 RAY 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Granada win 36%, 24% end level, Rayo win 40%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Granada by 3+ | 6.4% |
| Granada by 2 | 11.1% |
| Granada by 1 | 18.8% |
| Draw | 24.2% |
| Rayo by 1 | 19.6% |
| Rayo by 2 | 12.8% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 7.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Granada | 11 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.36 | +0.64 |
 Rayo | 22 | 2 | 1.78 | +0.22 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 46' | Pablo Hernández Domínguez scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 53' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 83' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
| 86' | José Eduardo Rosa Vale de Castro scored from a shot | 0.14 |
When it happened
Granada’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +17% GRA |
| 2 | 30' | Adrián Embarba Blázquez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% GRA |
| 3 | 46' | Pablo Hernández Domínguez scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +26% RAY |
| 4 | 53' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% GRA |
| 5 | 65' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% GRA |
| 6 | 76' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +8% GRA |
| 7 | 83' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +23% GRA |
| 8 | 86' | José Eduardo Rosa Vale de Castro scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +40% RAY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Granada 27% · draw 27% · Rayo 47%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Granada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rayo by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Granada 36% · draw 24% · Rayo 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 30 matches, 2015-16 · Granada · Rayo
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