Matchday 30 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 19, 2016
Betis 0–1 Málaga: who deserved to win?
Málaga beat Betis 1–0, but the replays lean toward Betis: 4 wins in 10 to Málaga’s 3, 3 end level. Betis made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 0 | 1.20 |
 Málaga | 1 | 0.86 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +58 Málaga lucky · −58 Betis
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 4, 3 end level, Málaga win 3.
- 1 BET 2 MAL 1
- 2 BET 3 MAL 2
- 3 BET 2 MAL 0
- 4 BET 4 MAL 1
- 5 BET 0 MAL 0
- 6 BET 0 MAL 0
- 7 BET 0 MAL 0
- 8 BET 0 MAL 2
- 9 BET 0 MAL 1
- 10 BET 1 MAL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 43%, 30% end level, Málaga win 27%. The line is what actually happened: Málaga by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 7.1% |
| Betis by 2 | 13.0% |
| Betis by 1 | 22.8% |
| Draw | 29.8% |
| Málaga by 1 | 18.1% |
| Málaga by 2 | 6.7% |
| Málaga by 3+ | 2.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 16 | 0 | 1.20 | −1.20 |
 Málaga | 14 | 1 | 0.86 | +0.14 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 54' | Leandro Damião da Silva dos Santos didn’t score from a shot | 0.51 |
| 81' | Ignacio Camacho Barnola scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Raúl Albentosa Redal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% BET |
| 2 | 2' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% BET |
| 3 | 38' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +7% BET |
| 4 | 54' | Leandro Damião da Silva dos Santos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +16% MAL |
| 5 | 56' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% MAL |
| 6 | 69' | Raúl Albentosa Redal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% BET |
| 7 | 81' | The game turned hereIgnacio Camacho Barnola scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +41% MAL |
| 8 | 89' | Alfred John Momar N''Diaye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +6% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 45% · draw 29% · Málaga 26%
- Final margin
- Málaga by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Málaga
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 43% · draw 30% · Málaga 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Málaga win 42% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 30, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–1 Eibar Mar 18, 2016 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Las Palmas Mar 19, 2016 · replay 71% for Las Palmas
- Granada 2–2 Rayo Mar 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Sporting 2–1 Atlético Mar 19, 2016 · replay 83% for Sporting
- Deportivo 2–1 Levante Mar 19, 2016 · replay 62% for Deportivo
- Espanyol 2–1 Athletic Mar 20, 2016 · replay 61% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 4–0 Sevilla Mar 20, 2016 · replay 97% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 0–2 Celta Mar 20, 2016 · replay 88% for Celta
- Villarreal 2–2 Barcelona Mar 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws