Matchday 30 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 20, 2016
Espanyol 2–1 Athletic: who deserved to win?
Espanyol beat Athletic 2–1, and the replays lean Espanyol’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Athletic, 2 end level. Espanyol made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 2 | 1.72 |
 Athletic Club | 1 | 1.12 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Espanyol lucky · −39 Athletic
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 5, 2 end level, Athletic win 3.
- 1 ESP 2 ATH 1
- 2 ESP 1 ATH 0
- 3 ESP 1 ATH 0
- 4 ESP 4 ATH 2
- 5 ESP 3 ATH 0
- 6 ESP 0 ATH 0
- 7 ESP 2 ATH 2
- 8 ESP 0 ATH 2
- 9 ESP 2 ATH 3
- 10 ESP 0 ATH 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 49%, 24% end level, Athletic win 27%. The line is what actually happened: Espanyol by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 12.1% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 15.3% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 22.1% |
| Draw | 24.0% |
| Athletic by 1 | 16.6% |
| Athletic by 2 | 7.0% |
| Athletic by 3+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 17 | 2 | 1.72 | +0.28 |
 Athletic | 13 | 1 | 1.12 | −0.12 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 19' | Javier Eraso Goñi scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 51' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 53' | Papa Kouly Diop scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 56' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 94' | Mamadou Sylla Diallo didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | Javier Eraso Goñi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% ESP |
| 2 | 19' | Javier Eraso Goñi scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +17% ATH |
| 3 | 49' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% ATH |
| 4 | 50' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% ATH |
| 5 | 51' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +11% ATH |
| 6 | 53' | The game turned herePapa Kouly Diop scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +33% ESP |
| 7 | 56' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +28% ESP |
| 8 | 85' | Aymeric Laporte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 52% · draw 26% · Athletic 22%
- Final margin
- Espanyol by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Espanyol
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Espanyol by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 49% · draw 24% · Athletic 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Espanyol win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 30, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–1 Eibar Mar 18, 2016 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Las Palmas Mar 19, 2016 · replay 71% for Las Palmas
- Granada 2–2 Rayo Mar 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Sporting 2–1 Atlético Mar 19, 2016 · replay 83% for Sporting
- Betis 0–1 Málaga Mar 19, 2016 · replay 42% for Málaga
- Deportivo 2–1 Levante Mar 19, 2016 · replay 62% for Deportivo
- Real Madrid 4–0 Sevilla Mar 20, 2016 · replay 97% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 0–2 Celta Mar 20, 2016 · replay 88% for Celta
- Villarreal 2–2 Barcelona Mar 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws