Matchday 30 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 20, 2016
Villarreal 2–2 Barcelona: who deserved to win?
Villarreal and Barcelona drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Villarreal win 2 of 10, Barcelona 6, and 2 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.3. An own goal helped Villarreal.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 2 | 1.27 |
 Barcelona | 2 | 1.78 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Villarreal about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 2, 2 end level, Barcelona win 6.
- 1 VIL 2 BAR 1
- 2 VIL 4 BAR 2
- 3 VIL 1 BAR 1
- 4 VIL 0 BAR 0
- 5 VIL 0 BAR 4
- 6 VIL 1 BAR 4
- 7 VIL 0 BAR 2
- 8 VIL 0 BAR 2
- 9 VIL 1 BAR 2
- 10 VIL 1 BAR 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 18%, 21% end level, Barcelona win 61%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 1.6% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 5.1% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 11.7% |
| Draw | 21.1% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 23.8% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 17.5% |
| Barcelona by 3+ | 19.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 15 | 1 | 1.27 | −0.27 |
 Barcelona | 15 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.78 | +0.22 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 19' | Ivan Rakitić scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 40' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 56' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shot | 0.27 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
As low as 5% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +4% BAR |
| 2 | 19' | Ivan Rakitić scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +24% BAR |
| 3 | 40' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +4% BAR |
| 4 | 56' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +11% VIL |
| 5 | 59' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +6% BAR |
| 6 | 62' | Own goal by Roberto Soldado Rillo, for VillarrealOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +35% VIL |
| 7 | 81' | Ivan Rakitić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% VIL |
| 8 | 92' | Jérémy Mathieu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +7% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 22% · draw 26% · Barcelona 52%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 18% · draw 21% · Barcelona 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 30, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–1 Eibar Mar 18, 2016 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Las Palmas Mar 19, 2016 · replay 71% for Las Palmas
- Granada 2–2 Rayo Mar 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Sporting 2–1 Atlético Mar 19, 2016 · replay 83% for Sporting
- Betis 0–1 Málaga Mar 19, 2016 · replay 42% for Málaga
- Deportivo 2–1 Levante Mar 19, 2016 · replay 62% for Deportivo
- Espanyol 2–1 Athletic Mar 20, 2016 · replay 61% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 4–0 Sevilla Mar 20, 2016 · replay 97% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 0–2 Celta Mar 20, 2016 · replay 88% for Celta