Matchday 30 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 19, 2016
Deportivo 2–1 Levante: who deserved to win?
Deportivo beat Levante 2–1, and the replays lean Deportivo’s way: 4 wins in 10, 2 for Levante, 4 end level. Deportivo made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.6. An own goal helped Deportivo.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Deportivo La Coruña | 2 | 0.91 |
 Levante | 1 | 0.57 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Deportivo lucky · −38 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Deportivo win 4, 4 end level, Levante win 2.
- 1 DEP 2 LEV 1
- 2 DEP 1 LEV 0
- 3 DEP 1 LEV 0
- 4 DEP 3 LEV 1
- 5 DEP 0 LEV 0
- 6 DEP 1 LEV 1
- 7 DEP 1 LEV 1
- 8 DEP 1 LEV 1
- 9 DEP 0 LEV 1
- 10 DEP 2 LEV 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Deportivo win 44%, 36% end level, Levante win 20%. The line is what actually happened: Deportivo by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Deportivo by 3+ | 5.2% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 11.1% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 28.1% |
| Draw | 35.5% |
| Levante by 1 | 15.3% |
| Levante by 2 | 3.8% |
| Levante by 3+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | 14 | 1 | 0.91 | +0.09 |
 Levante | 7 | 1 | 0.57 | +0.43 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 42' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 49' | Giuseppe Rossi scored from a shot | 0.35 |
When it happened
Deportivo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36' | José Luis Morales Nogales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% DEP |
| 2 | 42' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +23% DEP |
| 3 | 49' | Giuseppe Rossi scored from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +20% LEV |
| 4 | 72' | Fayçal Fajr didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% LEV |
| 5 | 77' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% LEV |
| 6 | 84' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +12% LEV |
| 7 | 84' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% LEV |
| 8 | 84' | Own goal by nan, for DeportivoOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +44% DEP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Deportivo 42% · draw 36% · Levante 22%
- Final margin
- Deportivo by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Deportivo by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Deportivo 44% · draw 36% · Levante 20% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Deportivo win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 30, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–1 Eibar Mar 18, 2016 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Las Palmas Mar 19, 2016 · replay 71% for Las Palmas
- Granada 2–2 Rayo Mar 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Sporting 2–1 Atlético Mar 19, 2016 · replay 83% for Sporting
- Betis 0–1 Málaga Mar 19, 2016 · replay 42% for Málaga
- Espanyol 2–1 Athletic Mar 20, 2016 · replay 61% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 4–0 Sevilla Mar 20, 2016 · replay 97% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 0–2 Celta Mar 20, 2016 · replay 88% for Celta
- Villarreal 2–2 Barcelona Mar 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws