Matchday 30 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 19, 2016
Real Sociedad 0–1 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Las Palmas beat Real Sociedad 1–0, and the replays lean Las Palmas’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Real Sociedad, 2 end level. Las Palmas made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 0 | 0.80 |
 Las Palmas | 1 | 1.50 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Las Palmas lucky · −29 Real Sociedad
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 2, 2 end level, Las Palmas win 6.
- 1 RSO 2 LPA 1
- 2 RSO 2 LPA 1
- 3 RSO 0 LPA 0
- 4 RSO 0 LPA 0
- 5 RSO 0 LPA 3
- 6 RSO 0 LPA 2
- 7 RSO 0 LPA 2
- 8 RSO 1 LPA 2
- 9 RSO 1 LPA 2
- 10 RSO 0 LPA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Sociedad win 18%, 23% end level, Las Palmas win 59%. The line is what actually happened: Las Palmas by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 0.9% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 3.5% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 13.3% |
| Draw | 23.1% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 27.6% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 17.7% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 14.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 15 | 0 | 0.80 | −0.80 |
 Las Palmas | 13 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.50 | −0.50 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 38' | Willian José da Silva scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +20% RSO |
| 2 | 16' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% LPA |
| 3 | 36' | Nabil El Zhar didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% RSO |
| 4 | 38' | The game turned hereWillian José da Silva scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +28% LPA |
| 5 | 45' | Nabil El Zhar didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +2% RSO |
| 6 | 46' | Aritz Elustondo Irribaria didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% LPA |
| 7 | 91' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +4% LPA |
| 8 | 92' | Esteban Félix Granero Molina didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% LPA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Sociedad 16% · draw 27% · Las Palmas 57%
- Final margin
- Las Palmas by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Las Palmas by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Sociedad 18% · draw 23% · Las Palmas 59% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Las Palmas win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 30 matches, 2015-16 · Real Sociedad · Las Palmas
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