Matchday 30 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 19, 2016
Sporting 2–1 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Sporting beat Atlético 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Sporting win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Sporting made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sporting Gijón | 2 | 1.92 |
 Atlético Madrid | 1 | 0.31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Sporting about even · −17 Atlético
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sporting win 7, 2 end level, Atlético win 1.
- 1 SPO 1 ATM 0
- 2 SPO 1 ATM 0
- 3 SPO 1 ATM 0
- 4 SPO 2 ATM 0
- 5 SPO 3 ATM 1
- 6 SPO 3 ATM 0
- 7 SPO 4 ATM 0
- 8 SPO 1 ATM 1
- 9 SPO 0 ATM 0
- 10 SPO 1 ATM 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sporting win 74%, 19% end level, Atlético win 7%. The line is what actually happened: Sporting by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sporting by 3+ | 23.9% |
| Sporting by 2 | 23.4% |
| Sporting by 1 | 26.5% |
| Draw | 19.3% |
| Atlético by 1 | 5.7% |
| Atlético by 2 | 1.1% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sporting | 12 | 2 | 1.92 | +0.08 |
 Atlético | 4 | 1 | 0.31 | +0.69 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 28' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a free kick | 0.07 |
| 78' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a free kick | 0.09 |
| 85' | Carlos Castro García didn’t score from a shot | 0.68 |
| 88' | Carlos Castro García scored from a shot | 0.80 |
When it happened
Sporting’s chance of winning
As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +27% ATM |
| 2 | 44' | Ángel Martín Correa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% SPO |
| 3 | 71' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% ATM |
| 4 | 78' | The game turned hereArnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a free kickFinishing · 9% chance | +40% SPO |
| 5 | 82' | Fernando José Torres Sanz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% SPO |
| 6 | 83' | Carlos Castro García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ATM |
| 7 | 85' | Carlos Castro García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 68% chance | +32% ATM |
| 8 | 88' | Carlos Castro García scored from a shotFinishing · 80% chance | +10% SPO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sporting 87% · draw 11% · Atlético 2%
- Final margin
- Sporting by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sporting by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Sporting 74% · draw 19% · Atlético 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sporting win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 30 matches, 2015-16 · Sporting · Atlético
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- Espanyol 2–1 Athletic Mar 20, 2016 · replay 61% for Espanyol
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