Matchday 30 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 20, 2016
Valencia 0–2 Celta: who deserved to win?
Celta beat Valencia 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Celta win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Celta made the better chances: 2.7 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 0 | 0.99 |
 Celta Vigo | 2 | 2.73 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Celta about even · −12 Valencia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 1, 1 ends level, Celta win 8.
- 1 VAL 2 CEL 1
- 2 VAL 2 CEL 2
- 3 VAL 0 CEL 6
- 4 VAL 0 CEL 5
- 5 VAL 0 CEL 4
- 6 VAL 0 CEL 3
- 7 VAL 0 CEL 3
- 8 VAL 0 CEL 2
- 9 VAL 0 CEL 2
- 10 VAL 3 CEL 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 7%, 11% end level, Celta win 82%. The line is what actually happened: Celta by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 0.7% |
| Valencia by 2 | 1.7% |
| Valencia by 1 | 4.8% |
| Draw | 10.7% |
| Celta by 1 | 15.6% |
| Celta by 2 | 18.9% |
| Celta by 3+ | 47.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 14 | 0 | 0.99 | −0.99 |
 Celta | 13 | 2 | 2.73 | −0.73 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 76' | Jonathan Castro Otto didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 79' | John Guidetti scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 83' | Hugo Mallo Novegil scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 86' | Daniel Wass didn’t score from a shot | 0.47 |
| 88' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela didn’t score from a shot | 0.55 |
| 91' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela didn’t score from a shot | 0.57 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | André Filipe Tavares Gomes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +4% CEL |
| 2 | 52' | Claudio Beauvue didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +8% VAL |
| 3 | 57' | Danilo Barbosa da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% CEL |
| 4 | 58' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% CEL |
| 5 | 66' | Rodrigo Moreno Machado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +7% CEL |
| 6 | 76' | Jonathan Castro Otto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +13% VAL |
| 7 | 79' | The game turned hereJohn Guidetti scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +30% CEL |
| 8 | 83' | Hugo Mallo Novegil scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +4% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 3% · draw 7% · Celta 90%
- Final margin
- Celta by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 7% · draw 11% · Celta 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Celta win 88% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 30, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–1 Eibar Mar 18, 2016 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Las Palmas Mar 19, 2016 · replay 71% for Las Palmas
- Granada 2–2 Rayo Mar 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Sporting 2–1 Atlético Mar 19, 2016 · replay 83% for Sporting
- Betis 0–1 Málaga Mar 19, 2016 · replay 42% for Málaga
- Deportivo 2–1 Levante Mar 19, 2016 · replay 62% for Deportivo
- Espanyol 2–1 Athletic Mar 20, 2016 · replay 61% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 4–0 Sevilla Mar 20, 2016 · replay 97% for Real Madrid
- Villarreal 2–2 Barcelona Mar 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws