Matchday 32 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 9, 2016
Espanyol 1–3 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Espanyol 3–1, and the replays lean Atlético’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Espanyol, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.7 expected goals to 1.0).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 1 | 0.74 |
 Atlético Madrid | 3 | 0.96 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Atlético lucky · −37 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 2, 3 end level, Atlético win 5.
- 1 ESP 1 ATM 0
- 2 ESP 2 ATM 0
- 3 ESP 1 ATM 1
- 4 ESP 1 ATM 1
- 5 ESP 0 ATM 0
- 6 ESP 0 ATM 3
- 7 ESP 0 ATM 2
- 8 ESP 0 ATM 1
- 9 ESP 0 ATM 1
- 10 ESP 0 ATM 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 22%, 31% end level, Atlético win 47%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 1.2% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 5.1% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 15.7% |
| Draw | 30.7% |
| Atlético by 1 | 28.3% |
| Atlético by 2 | 12.9% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 6.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 10 | 1 | 0.74 | +0.26 |
 Atlético | 14 | 3 | 0.96 | +2.04 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 28' | Papa Kouly Diop scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 34' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 57' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 88' | Jorge Resurrección Merodio scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28' | Papa Kouly Diop scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +24% ESP |
| 2 | 34' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +25% ATM |
| 3 | 40' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% ATM |
| 4 | 41' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% ESP |
| 5 | 43' | Víctor Sánchez Mata didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% ATM |
| 6 | 57' | The game turned hereAntoine Griezmann scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +31% ATM |
| 7 | 72' | Jorge Resurrección Merodio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +2% ESP |
| 8 | 83' | Abraham González Casanova didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +11% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 9% · draw 19% · Atlético 71%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 22% · draw 31% · Atlético 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 63% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 32, 2015-16
- Granada 0–0 Málaga Apr 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Betis 1–0 Levante Apr 9, 2016 · replay 34% for Betis
- Real Madrid 4–0 Eibar Apr 9, 2016 · replay 90% for Real Madrid
- Real Sociedad 1–0 Barcelona Apr 9, 2016 · replay 35% for Real Sociedad
- Athletic 1–0 Rayo Apr 10, 2016 · replay 42% for Athletic
- Villarreal 2–0 Getafe Apr 10, 2016 · replay 77% for Villarreal
- Sporting 0–1 Celta Apr 10, 2016 · replay 62% for Celta
- Valencia 2–1 Sevilla Apr 10, 2016 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Deportivo 1–3 Las Palmas Apr 11, 2016 · replay 46% for Las Palmas