Matchday 32 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 9, 2016
Real Sociedad 1–0 Barcelona: who deserved to win?
Real Sociedad beat Barcelona 1–0, but the replays lean toward Barcelona: 5 wins in 10 to Real Sociedad’s 2, 3 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 1 | 0.43 |
 Barcelona | 0 | 1.17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +65 Real Sociedad very lucky · −65 Barcelona
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 2, 3 end level, Barcelona win 5.
- 1 RSO 1 BAR 0
- 2 RSO 2 BAR 1
- 3 RSO 0 BAR 0
- 4 RSO 1 BAR 1
- 5 RSO 0 BAR 0
- 6 RSO 0 BAR 3
- 7 RSO 1 BAR 3
- 8 RSO 0 BAR 1
- 9 RSO 0 BAR 1
- 10 RSO 0 BAR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Sociedad win 18%, 33% end level, Barcelona win 49%. The line is what actually happened: Real Sociedad by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 0.8% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 3.8% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 13.9% |
| Draw | 32.9% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 28.0% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 14.7% |
| Barcelona by 3+ | 5.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 5 | 1 | 0.43 | +0.57 |
 Barcelona | 13 | 0 | 1.17 | −1.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +7% RSO |
| 2 | 4' | Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +19% RSO |
| 3 | 33' | Arda Turan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% RSO |
| 4 | 41' | Alberto De La Bella Madureño didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +3% BAR |
| 5 | 72' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% RSO |
| 6 | 85' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% RSO |
| 7 | 90' | Andrés Iniesta Luján didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% RSO |
| 8 | 90' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +3% RSO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Sociedad 15% · draw 29% · Barcelona 56%
- Final margin
- Real Sociedad by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Real Sociedad
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Sociedad 18% · draw 33% · Barcelona 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Sociedad win 35% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 32 matches, 2015-16 · Real Sociedad · Barcelona
More from matchday 32, 2015-16
- Granada 0–0 Málaga Apr 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Espanyol 1–3 Atlético Apr 9, 2016 · replay 63% for Atlético
- Betis 1–0 Levante Apr 9, 2016 · replay 34% for Betis
- Real Madrid 4–0 Eibar Apr 9, 2016 · replay 90% for Real Madrid
- Athletic 1–0 Rayo Apr 10, 2016 · replay 42% for Athletic
- Villarreal 2–0 Getafe Apr 10, 2016 · replay 77% for Villarreal
- Sporting 0–1 Celta Apr 10, 2016 · replay 62% for Celta
- Valencia 2–1 Sevilla Apr 10, 2016 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Deportivo 1–3 Las Palmas Apr 11, 2016 · replay 46% for Las Palmas