Matchday 32 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 10, 2016
Athletic 1–0 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Athletic beat Rayo 1–0, but the replays lean toward Rayo: 4 wins in 10 to Athletic’s 3, 3 end level. Rayo made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 1 | 0.93 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 1.48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +58 Athletic lucky · −58 Rayo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 3, 3 end level, Rayo win 4.
- 1 ATH 1 RAY 0
- 2 ATH 1 RAY 0
- 3 ATH 2 RAY 0
- 4 ATH 1 RAY 1
- 5 ATH 0 RAY 0
- 6 ATH 0 RAY 0
- 7 ATH 0 RAY 3
- 8 ATH 0 RAY 2
- 9 ATH 0 RAY 1
- 10 ATH 0 RAY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Athletic win 28%, 28% end level, Rayo win 45%. The line is what actually happened: Athletic by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Athletic by 3+ | 2.9% |
| Athletic by 2 | 6.9% |
| Athletic by 1 | 18.1% |
| Draw | 27.5% |
| Rayo by 1 | 23.1% |
| Rayo by 2 | 13.2% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 8.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Athletic | 14 | 1 | 0.93 | +0.07 |
 Rayo | 12 | 0 | 1.48 | −1.48 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 60' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer scored from a shot | 0.15 |
When it happened
Athletic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% ATH |
| 2 | 45' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% RAY |
| 3 | 59' | Pablo Hernández Domínguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +6% ATH |
| 4 | 60' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +29% ATH |
| 5 | 70' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +10% ATH |
| 6 | 72' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +10% ATH |
| 7 | 84' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +11% ATH |
| 8 | 92' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Athletic 24% · draw 26% · Rayo 50%
- Final margin
- Athletic by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rayo by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Athletic 28% · draw 28% · Rayo 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Athletic win 42% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 32, 2015-16
- Granada 0–0 Málaga Apr 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Espanyol 1–3 Atlético Apr 9, 2016 · replay 63% for Atlético
- Betis 1–0 Levante Apr 9, 2016 · replay 34% for Betis
- Real Madrid 4–0 Eibar Apr 9, 2016 · replay 90% for Real Madrid
- Real Sociedad 1–0 Barcelona Apr 9, 2016 · replay 35% for Real Sociedad
- Villarreal 2–0 Getafe Apr 10, 2016 · replay 77% for Villarreal
- Sporting 0–1 Celta Apr 10, 2016 · replay 62% for Celta
- Valencia 2–1 Sevilla Apr 10, 2016 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Deportivo 1–3 Las Palmas Apr 11, 2016 · replay 46% for Las Palmas