Matchday 32 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 11, 2016
Deportivo 1–3 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Las Palmas beat Deportivo 3–1, but the replays call it even: Las Palmas win 4 of 10, Deportivo 4, 2 end level. Deportivo made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Deportivo La Coruña | 1 | 2.06 |
 Las Palmas | 3 | 1.55 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Las Palmas lucky · −54 Deportivo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Deportivo win 4, 2 end level, Las Palmas win 4.
- 1 DEP 2 LPA 1
- 2 DEP 2 LPA 1
- 3 DEP 3 LPA 1
- 4 DEP 3 LPA 0
- 5 DEP 1 LPA 1
- 6 DEP 1 LPA 1
- 7 DEP 0 LPA 3
- 8 DEP 0 LPA 2
- 9 DEP 1 LPA 2
- 10 DEP 2 LPA 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Deportivo win 43%, 22% end level, Las Palmas win 35%. The line is what actually happened: Las Palmas by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Deportivo by 3+ | 10.5% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 13.3% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 19.3% |
| Draw | 22.3% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 16.4% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 10.6% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 7.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | 19 | 1 | 2.06 | −1.06 |
 Las Palmas | 13 | 3 | 1.55 | +1.45 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 46' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shot | 0.50 |
| 57' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 78' | David García Santana scored from a shot | 0.27 |
| 92' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo scored from a shot | 0.74 |
When it happened
Deportivo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +7% LPA |
| 2 | 46' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +15% DEP |
| 3 | 57' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +28% LPA |
| 4 | 74' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +8% LPA |
| 5 | 78' | The game turned hereDavid García Santana scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +32% LPA |
| 6 | 84' | Jonathan Javier Rodríguez Portillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +9% LPA |
| 7 | 84' | Celso Borges Mora didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +11% LPA |
| 8 | 91' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +8% LPA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Deportivo 28% · draw 22% · Las Palmas 50%
- Final margin
- Las Palmas by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.9 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Las Palmas by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Deportivo 43% · draw 22% · Las Palmas 35% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Las Palmas win 46% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 32 matches, 2015-16 · Deportivo · Las Palmas
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