Matchday 32 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 10, 2016
Villarreal 2–0 Getafe: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Getafe 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Villarreal win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Villarreal made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 2 | 1.78 |
 Getafe | 0 | 0.99 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Villarreal about even · −23 Getafe
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 7, 2 end level, Getafe win 1.
- 1 VIL 2 GET 1
- 2 VIL 1 GET 0
- 3 VIL 3 GET 1
- 4 VIL 2 GET 0
- 5 VIL 2 GET 0
- 6 VIL 3 GET 0
- 7 VIL 4 GET 0
- 8 VIL 3 GET 3
- 9 VIL 0 GET 0
- 10 VIL 1 GET 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 67%, 20% end level, Getafe win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 23.2% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 21.0% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 22.6% |
| Draw | 19.7% |
| Getafe by 1 | 9.8% |
| Getafe by 2 | 2.8% |
| Getafe by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 13 | 2 | 1.78 | +0.22 |
 Getafe | 17 | 0 | 0.99 | −0.99 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | Denis Suárez Fernández scored from a shot | 0.37 |
| 84' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shot | 0.66 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Denis Suárez Fernández scored from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +15% VIL |
| 2 | 19' | Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% VIL |
| 3 | 24' | Henok Goitom didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +4% VIL |
| 4 | 43' | Henok Goitom didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% VIL |
| 5 | 43' | Juan Torres Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% VIL |
| 6 | 59' | Adrián López Álvarez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +2% GET |
| 7 | 63' | Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% VIL |
| 8 | 72' | Pedro León Sánchez Gil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 81% · draw 12% · Getafe 7%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 67% · draw 20% · Getafe 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 77% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 32, 2015-16
- Granada 0–0 Málaga Apr 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Espanyol 1–3 Atlético Apr 9, 2016 · replay 63% for Atlético
- Betis 1–0 Levante Apr 9, 2016 · replay 34% for Betis
- Real Madrid 4–0 Eibar Apr 9, 2016 · replay 90% for Real Madrid
- Real Sociedad 1–0 Barcelona Apr 9, 2016 · replay 35% for Real Sociedad
- Athletic 1–0 Rayo Apr 10, 2016 · replay 42% for Athletic
- Sporting 0–1 Celta Apr 10, 2016 · replay 62% for Celta
- Valencia 2–1 Sevilla Apr 10, 2016 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Deportivo 1–3 Las Palmas Apr 11, 2016 · replay 46% for Las Palmas