Matchday 32 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 10, 2016
Sporting 0–1 Celta: who deserved to win?
Celta beat Sporting 1–0, and the replays lean Celta’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Sporting, 3 end level. Celta made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sporting Gijón | 0 | 0.59 |
 Celta Vigo | 1 | 0.98 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Celta lucky · −38 Sporting
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sporting win 2, 3 end level, Celta win 5.
- 1 SPO 1 CEL 0
- 2 SPO 1 CEL 0
- 3 SPO 0 CEL 0
- 4 SPO 0 CEL 0
- 5 SPO 0 CEL 0
- 6 SPO 1 CEL 4
- 7 SPO 1 CEL 3
- 8 SPO 0 CEL 1
- 9 SPO 0 CEL 1
- 10 SPO 0 CEL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sporting win 22%, 32% end level, Celta win 47%. The line is what actually happened: Celta by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sporting by 3+ | 1.1% |
| Sporting by 2 | 4.5% |
| Sporting by 1 | 16.1% |
| Draw | 31.8% |
| Celta by 1 | 28.2% |
| Celta by 2 | 12.8% |
| Celta by 3+ | 5.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sporting | 11 | 0 | 0.59 | −0.59 |
 Celta | 17 | 1 | 0.98 | +0.02 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 63' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Sporting’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% SPO |
| 2 | 27' | Pablo Pérez Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% CEL |
| 3 | 28' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% SPO |
| 4 | 29' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% SPO |
| 5 | 44' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% CEL |
| 6 | 61' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% SPO |
| 7 | 63' | The game turned hereManuel Agudo Durán scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +35% CEL |
| 8 | 92' | Ismael López Blanco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sporting 23% · draw 33% · Celta 45%
- Final margin
- Celta by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Sporting 22% · draw 32% · Celta 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Celta win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 32 matches, 2015-16 · Sporting · Celta
More from matchday 32, 2015-16
- Granada 0–0 Málaga Apr 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Espanyol 1–3 Atlético Apr 9, 2016 · replay 63% for Atlético
- Betis 1–0 Levante Apr 9, 2016 · replay 34% for Betis
- Real Madrid 4–0 Eibar Apr 9, 2016 · replay 90% for Real Madrid
- Real Sociedad 1–0 Barcelona Apr 9, 2016 · replay 35% for Real Sociedad
- Athletic 1–0 Rayo Apr 10, 2016 · replay 42% for Athletic
- Villarreal 2–0 Getafe Apr 10, 2016 · replay 77% for Villarreal
- Valencia 2–1 Sevilla Apr 10, 2016 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Deportivo 1–3 Las Palmas Apr 11, 2016 · replay 46% for Las Palmas