Matchday 32 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 10, 2016
Valencia 2–1 Sevilla: who deserved to win?
Valencia beat Sevilla 2–1, and the replays lean Valencia’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Sevilla, 2 end level. Valencia made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.9.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Valencia lucky · −26 Sevilla
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 6, 2 end level, Sevilla win 2.
- 1 VAL 2 SEV 1
- 2 VAL 2 SEV 1
- 3 VAL 3 SEV 1
- 4 VAL 2 SEV 0
- 5 VAL 5 SEV 2
- 6 VAL 4 SEV 0
- 7 VAL 0 SEV 0
- 8 VAL 1 SEV 1
- 9 VAL 0 SEV 2
- 10 VAL 1 SEV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 63%, 21% end level, Sevilla win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Valencia by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 18.6% |
| Valencia by 2 | 19.3% |
| Valencia by 1 | 24.9% |
| Draw | 21.5% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 10.9% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 3.9% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 23 | 2 | 1.72 | +0.28 |
 Sevilla | 7 | 1 | 0.95 | +0.05 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 40' | Daniel Parejo Muñoz scored from a free kick | 0.05 |
| 85' | Kevin Gameiro scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 90' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.38 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22' | Daniel Parejo Muñoz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +7% SEV |
| 2 | 40' | Daniel Parejo Muñoz scored from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +27% VAL |
| 3 | 45' | Guilherme Magdalena Siqueira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +2% SEV |
| 4 | 47' | Fernando Llorente Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +8% VAL |
| 5 | 50' | Sergio Escudero Palomo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +7% VAL |
| 6 | 82' | Jorge Andújar Moreno didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +12% VAL |
| 7 | 85' | Kevin Gameiro scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +43% SEV |
| 8 | 90' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +31% VAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 57% · draw 23% · Sevilla 20%
- Final margin
- Valencia by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Valencia by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 63% · draw 21% · Sevilla 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Valencia win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 32, 2015-16
- Granada 0–0 Málaga Apr 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Espanyol 1–3 Atlético Apr 9, 2016 · replay 63% for Atlético
- Betis 1–0 Levante Apr 9, 2016 · replay 34% for Betis
- Real Madrid 4–0 Eibar Apr 9, 2016 · replay 90% for Real Madrid
- Real Sociedad 1–0 Barcelona Apr 9, 2016 · replay 35% for Real Sociedad
- Athletic 1–0 Rayo Apr 10, 2016 · replay 42% for Athletic
- Villarreal 2–0 Getafe Apr 10, 2016 · replay 77% for Villarreal
- Sporting 0–1 Celta Apr 10, 2016 · replay 62% for Celta
- Deportivo 1–3 Las Palmas Apr 11, 2016 · replay 46% for Las Palmas