Matchday 32 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 9, 2016
Betis 1–0 Levante: who deserved to win?
Betis beat Levante 1–0, but the replays lean toward Levante: 4 wins in 10 to Betis’s 2, 4 end level. Levante made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 1 | 0.40 |
 Levante | 0 | 0.96 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +66 Betis very lucky · −66 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 2, 4 end level, Levante win 4.
- 1 BET 2 LEV 1
- 2 BET 1 LEV 0
- 3 BET 1 LEV 1
- 4 BET 2 LEV 2
- 5 BET 0 LEV 0
- 6 BET 0 LEV 0
- 7 BET 0 LEV 2
- 8 BET 0 LEV 1
- 9 BET 0 LEV 1
- 10 BET 0 LEV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 17%, 35% end level, Levante win 48%. The line is what actually happened: Betis by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 0.5% |
| Betis by 2 | 2.8% |
| Betis by 1 | 13.3% |
| Draw | 35.0% |
| Levante by 1 | 29.8% |
| Levante by 2 | 12.8% |
| Levante by 3+ | 5.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 7 | 1 | 0.40 | +0.60 |
 Levante | 12 | 0 | 0.96 | −0.96 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Joan Verdú Fernández didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 80' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shot | 0.19 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Joan Verdú Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +8% BET |
| 2 | 22' | Giuseppe Rossi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% BET |
| 3 | 33' | Carl Medjani didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% BET |
| 4 | 64' | Giuseppe Rossi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% BET |
| 5 | 66' | Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solís didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% BET |
| 6 | 77' | Álvaro Cejudo Carmona didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% LEV |
| 7 | 80' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +35% BET |
| 8 | 93' | José Luis Morales Nogales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +5% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 18% · draw 33% · Levante 49%
- Final margin
- Betis by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Levante by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 17% · draw 35% · Levante 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Betis win 34% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 32, 2015-16
- Granada 0–0 Málaga Apr 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Espanyol 1–3 Atlético Apr 9, 2016 · replay 63% for Atlético
- Real Madrid 4–0 Eibar Apr 9, 2016 · replay 90% for Real Madrid
- Real Sociedad 1–0 Barcelona Apr 9, 2016 · replay 35% for Real Sociedad
- Athletic 1–0 Rayo Apr 10, 2016 · replay 42% for Athletic
- Villarreal 2–0 Getafe Apr 10, 2016 · replay 77% for Villarreal
- Sporting 0–1 Celta Apr 10, 2016 · replay 62% for Celta
- Valencia 2–1 Sevilla Apr 10, 2016 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Deportivo 1–3 Las Palmas Apr 11, 2016 · replay 46% for Las Palmas