Matchday 32 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 9, 2016
Real Madrid 4–0 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Eibar 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Madrid win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 4 | 2.47 |
 Eibar | 0 | 1.31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Real Madrid about even · −10 Eibar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 9, 1 ends level, Eibar win 0.
- 1 RMA 5 EIB 4
- 2 RMA 2 EIB 0
- 3 RMA 3 EIB 1
- 4 RMA 4 EIB 1
- 5 RMA 3 EIB 0
- 6 RMA 4 EIB 0
- 7 RMA 4 EIB 0
- 8 RMA 7 EIB 2
- 9 RMA 7 EIB 0
- 10 RMA 1 EIB 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Madrid win 86%, 9% end level, Eibar win 5%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 51.3% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 19.5% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 14.7% |
| Draw | 9.4% |
| Eibar by 1 | 3.1% |
| Eibar by 2 | 1.3% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 15 | 4 | 2.47 | +1.53 |
 Eibar | 9 | 0 | 1.31 | −1.31 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | James David Rodríguez Rubio scored from a free kick | 0.10 |
| 17' | Lucas Vázquez Iglesias scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 18' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.35 |
| 38' | Jesé Rodríguez Ruiz scored from a shot | 0.71 |
| 48' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 73' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.53 |
| 78' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shot | 0.64 |
When it happened
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | James David Rodríguez Rubio scored from a free kickFinishing · 10% chance | +20% RMA |
| 2 | 8' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% EIB |
| 3 | 11' | Sergio Gontán Gallardo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +0% RMA |
| 4 | 17' | Lucas Vázquez Iglesias scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +10% RMA |
| 5 | 18' | José Ignacio Peleteiro Ramallo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +0% RMA |
| 6 | 18' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +3% RMA |
| 7 | 38' | Jesé Rodríguez Ruiz scored from a shotFinishing · 71% chance | +0% RMA |
| 8 | 48' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +0% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Madrid 87% · draw 10% · Eibar 3%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Madrid 86% · draw 9% · Eibar 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 90% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 32 matches, 2015-16 · Real Madrid · Eibar
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- Betis 1–0 Levante Apr 9, 2016 · replay 34% for Betis
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- Athletic 1–0 Rayo Apr 10, 2016 · replay 42% for Athletic
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- Sporting 0–1 Celta Apr 10, 2016 · replay 62% for Celta
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