Matchday 35 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 22, 2016
Las Palmas 4–0 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Las Palmas beat Espanyol 4–0, but the replays lean toward Espanyol: 5 wins in 10 to Las Palmas’s 3, 2 end level. Espanyol made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 4 | 1.13 |
 Espanyol | 0 | 1.89 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Las Palmas lucky · −56 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Las Palmas win 3, 2 end level, Espanyol win 5.
- 1 LPA 1 ESP 0
- 2 LPA 2 ESP 1
- 3 LPA 5 ESP 3
- 4 LPA 1 ESP 1
- 5 LPA 1 ESP 1
- 6 LPA 1 ESP 4
- 7 LPA 0 ESP 2
- 8 LPA 1 ESP 2
- 9 LPA 1 ESP 2
- 10 LPA 1 ESP 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Las Palmas win 32%, 24% end level, Espanyol win 44%. The line is what actually happened: Las Palmas by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 4.9% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 9.2% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 18.1% |
| Draw | 24.3% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 20.6% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 13.3% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 9.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 15 | 4 | 1.13 | +2.87 |
 Espanyol | 12 | 0 | 1.89 | −1.89 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 43' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shot | 0.61 |
| 45' | Nabil El Zhar scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 48' | Jonathan Viera Ramos scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 55' | Pedro Bigas Rigo scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 74' | Mubarak Wakaso scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 81' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González didn’t score from a shot | 0.47 |
When it happened
Las Palmas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Pedro Bigas Rigo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% ESP |
| 2 | 22' | Mauricio Lemos Merladet didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% ESP |
| 3 | 24' | Jorge Franco Alviz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% LPA |
| 4 | 28' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% LPA |
| 5 | 43' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 61% chance | +19% LPA |
| 6 | 45' | Nabil El Zhar scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +25% LPA |
| 7 | 48' | Jonathan Viera Ramos scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +10% LPA |
| 8 | 50' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +2% LPA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Las Palmas 43% · draw 25% · Espanyol 32%
- Final margin
- Las Palmas by 4
- Luck in goals
- 3.6 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Las Palmas by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Las Palmas 32% · draw 24% · Espanyol 44% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Las Palmas win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 35 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Espanyol
More from matchday 35, 2015-16
- Eibar 1–1 Deportivo Apr 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Atlético 1–0 Málaga Apr 23, 2016 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Rayo 2–3 Real Madrid Apr 23, 2016 · replay 51% for Real Madrid
- Barcelona 6–0 Sporting Apr 23, 2016 · replay 99% for Barcelona
- Villarreal 0–0 Real Sociedad Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 41% draws
- Sevilla 2–0 Betis Apr 24, 2016 · replay 74% for Sevilla
- Levante 2–2 Athletic Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Getafe 2–2 Valencia Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 11% draws
- Celta 2–1 Granada Apr 25, 2016 · replay 79% for Celta