luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 35 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 24, 2016

Villarreal 0–0 Real Sociedad: who deserved to win?

Villarreal and Real Sociedad drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Villarreal win 3 of 10, Real Sociedad 3, and 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.5 expected goals to 0.6).

Full time

GoalsxG
Villarreal 0 0.50
Real Sociedad 0 0.64

April 24, 2016 · Estadio de la Cerámica · Referee: David Fernández Borbalan

Luck index +3 Villarreal about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Villarreal win 3, 4 end level, Real Sociedad win 3.

  1. 1 VIL 2 RSO 1
  2. 2 VIL 1 RSO 0
  3. 3 VIL 3 RSO 1
  4. 4 VIL 0 RSO 0
  5. 5 VIL 0 RSO 0
  6. 6 VIL 0 RSO 0
  7. 7 VIL 1 RSO 1
  8. 8 VIL 0 RSO 2
  9. 9 VIL 0 RSO 1
  10. 10 VIL 0 RSO 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Villarreal win 26%, 41% end level, Real Sociedad win 33%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Villarreal by 3+1.2%
Villarreal by 25.1%
Villarreal by 119.7%
Draw41.0%
Real Sociedad by 123.6%
Real Sociedad by 27.4%
Real Sociedad by 3+1.9%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Villarreal800.50−0.50
Real Sociedad700.64−0.64

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

Villarreal’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Villarreal was ahead in it, below while Real Sociedad was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 14' Aritz Elustondo Irribaria didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +2% VIL
2 24' Bruno Soriano Llido didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 9% chance +2% RSO
3 30' Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance +4% RSO
4 45' Markel Bergara Larrañaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +2% VIL
5 59' Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +3% VIL
6 60' Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance +8% VIL
7 84' Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +4% RSO
8 90' Héctor Hernández Ortega didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +5% VIL

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Villarreal 25% · draw 41% · Real Sociedad 34%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.1 for Villarreal
Luck-adjusted margin
Real Sociedad by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Villarreal 26% · draw 41% · Real Sociedad 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 35 matches, 2015-16 · Villarreal · Real Sociedad

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