Matchday 35 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 24, 2016
Getafe 2–2 Valencia: who deserved to win?
Getafe and Valencia drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Getafe win 8 of 10, Valencia 1, and 1 end level. Getafe made the better chances: 3.0 expected goals to 0.6.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −39 Getafe unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 8, 1 ends level, Valencia win 1.
- 1 GET 2 VAL 1
- 2 GET 1 VAL 0
- 3 GET 2 VAL 0
- 4 GET 4 VAL 2
- 5 GET 4 VAL 1
- 6 GET 4 VAL 1
- 7 GET 5 VAL 1
- 8 GET 5 VAL 0
- 9 GET 1 VAL 1
- 10 GET 3 VAL 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 83%, 11% end level, Valencia win 6%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 40.8% |
| Getafe by 2 | 22.1% |
| Getafe by 1 | 20.1% |
| Draw | 11.5% |
| Valencia by 1 | 4.2% |
| Valencia by 2 | 1.1% |
| Valencia by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 18 | 2 | 2.99 | −0.99 |
 Valencia | 5 | 2 | 0.61 | +1.40 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 47' | Daniel Parejo Muñoz scored from a free kick | 0.05 |
| 56' | Pedro León Sánchez Gil didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 58' | Álvaro Medrán Just scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 67' | Stefan Šćepović scored from a shot | 0.49 |
| 83' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 92' | Abdoul Karim Yoda didn’t score from a shot | 0.56 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
As low as 19% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% VAL |
| 2 | 47' | Daniel Parejo Muñoz scored from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +31% VAL |
| 3 | 56' | Pedro León Sánchez Gil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +15% VAL |
| 4 | 58' | Álvaro Medrán Just scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +32% GET |
| 5 | 67' | Stefan Šćepović scored from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +19% GET |
| 6 | 83' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +32% VAL |
| 7 | 92' | Santiago Vergini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +15% VAL |
| 8 | 92' | Abdoul Karim Yoda didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 56% chance | +28% VAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 89% · draw 8% · Valencia 3%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Getafe by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 83% · draw 11% · Valencia 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 35, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 4–0 Espanyol Apr 22, 2016 · replay 44% for Las Palmas
- Eibar 1–1 Deportivo Apr 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Atlético 1–0 Málaga Apr 23, 2016 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Rayo 2–3 Real Madrid Apr 23, 2016 · replay 51% for Real Madrid
- Barcelona 6–0 Sporting Apr 23, 2016 · replay 99% for Barcelona
- Villarreal 0–0 Real Sociedad Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 41% draws
- Sevilla 2–0 Betis Apr 24, 2016 · replay 74% for Sevilla
- Levante 2–2 Athletic Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Celta 2–1 Granada Apr 25, 2016 · replay 79% for Celta