Matchday 35 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 23, 2016
Barcelona 6–0 Sporting: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Sporting 6–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 10 of 10. Barcelona made the better chances: 4.7 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 6 | 4.72 |
 Sporting Gijón | 0 | 0.41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Barcelona about even · −1 Sporting
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 10, 0 end level, Sporting win 0.
- 1 BAR 2 SPO 0
- 2 BAR 4 SPO 0
- 3 BAR 5 SPO 1
- 4 BAR 5 SPO 0
- 5 BAR 6 SPO 1
- 6 BAR 6 SPO 0
- 7 BAR 7 SPO 0
- 8 BAR 9 SPO 1
- 9 BAR 9 SPO 0
- 10 BAR 12 SPO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Barcelona win 100%, 0% end level, Sporting win 0%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 6.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Barcelona by 3+ | 91.8% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 5.3% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 2.4% |
| Draw | 0.4% |
| Sporting by 1 | 0.1% |
| Sporting by 2 | 0.0% |
| Sporting by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 23 (3 pen) | 6 | 4.72 | +1.28 |
 Sporting | 4 | 0 | 0.41 | −0.41 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
| 11' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.27 |
| 62' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.44 |
| 73' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 76' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 85' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 87' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.21 |
When it happened
Barcelona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +8% SPO |
| 2 | 10' | Alejandro Menéndez Díez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% BAR |
| 3 | 11' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +17% BAR |
| 4 | 15' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +2% SPO |
| 5 | 35' | Alejandro Menéndez Díez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% BAR |
| 6 | 39' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +1% SPO |
| 7 | 58' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +2% SPO |
| 8 | 62' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +5% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Barcelona 100% · draw 0% · Sporting 0%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 6
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 4.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Barcelona 100% · draw 0% · Sporting 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 99% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 35 matches, 2015-16 · Barcelona · Sporting
More from matchday 35, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 4–0 Espanyol Apr 22, 2016 · replay 44% for Las Palmas
- Eibar 1–1 Deportivo Apr 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Atlético 1–0 Málaga Apr 23, 2016 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Rayo 2–3 Real Madrid Apr 23, 2016 · replay 51% for Real Madrid
- Villarreal 0–0 Real Sociedad Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 41% draws
- Sevilla 2–0 Betis Apr 24, 2016 · replay 74% for Sevilla
- Levante 2–2 Athletic Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Getafe 2–2 Valencia Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 11% draws
- Celta 2–1 Granada Apr 25, 2016 · replay 79% for Celta