Matchday 35 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 23, 2016
Atlético 1–0 Málaga: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Málaga 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Atlético win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 1 | 1.32 |
 Málaga | 0 | 0.16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Atlético about even · −17 Málaga
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 7, 2 end level, Málaga win 1.
- 1 ATM 1 MAL 0
- 2 ATM 1 MAL 0
- 3 ATM 1 MAL 0
- 4 ATM 2 MAL 0
- 5 ATM 2 MAL 0
- 6 ATM 3 MAL 0
- 7 ATM 4 MAL 0
- 8 ATM 0 MAL 0
- 9 ATM 0 MAL 0
- 10 ATM 0 MAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Atlético win 71%, 24% end level, Málaga win 5%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Atlético by 3+ | 16.0% |
| Atlético by 2 | 22.3% |
| Atlético by 1 | 32.4% |
| Draw | 24.2% |
| Málaga by 1 | 4.8% |
| Málaga by 2 | 0.4% |
| Málaga by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlético | 14 | 1 | 1.32 | −0.32 |
 Málaga | 7 | 0 | 0.16 | −0.16 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 61' | Ángel Martín Correa scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 77' | Ángel Martín Correa didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
When it happened
Atlético’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +10% MAL |
| 2 | 23' | Ignacio Camacho Barnola didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ATM |
| 3 | 32' | Saúl Ñíguez Esclapez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% MAL |
| 4 | 50' | Saúl Ñíguez Esclapez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% MAL |
| 5 | 55' | Fernando José Torres Sanz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% MAL |
| 6 | 60' | Fernando José Torres Sanz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% MAL |
| 7 | 61' | Ángel Martín Correa scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +33% ATM |
| 8 | 77' | Ángel Martín Correa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +2% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Atlético 72% · draw 22% · Málaga 5%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Málaga
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Atlético 71% · draw 24% · Málaga 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 35, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 4–0 Espanyol Apr 22, 2016 · replay 44% for Las Palmas
- Eibar 1–1 Deportivo Apr 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Rayo 2–3 Real Madrid Apr 23, 2016 · replay 51% for Real Madrid
- Barcelona 6–0 Sporting Apr 23, 2016 · replay 99% for Barcelona
- Villarreal 0–0 Real Sociedad Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 41% draws
- Sevilla 2–0 Betis Apr 24, 2016 · replay 74% for Sevilla
- Levante 2–2 Athletic Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Getafe 2–2 Valencia Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 11% draws
- Celta 2–1 Granada Apr 25, 2016 · replay 79% for Celta