Matchday 35 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 25, 2016
Celta 2–1 Granada: who deserved to win?
Celta beat Granada 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Celta win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Celta made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 2 | 2.09 |
 Granada | 1 | 0.91 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Celta about even · −21 Granada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 7, 2 end level, Granada win 1.
- 1 CEL 2 GRA 1
- 2 CEL 1 GRA 0
- 3 CEL 2 GRA 0
- 4 CEL 2 GRA 0
- 5 CEL 2 GRA 0
- 6 CEL 3 GRA 0
- 7 CEL 5 GRA 1
- 8 CEL 1 GRA 1
- 9 CEL 1 GRA 1
- 10 CEL 0 GRA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Celta win 70%, 18% end level, Granada win 12%. The line is what actually happened: Celta by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Celta by 3+ | 24.6% |
| Celta by 2 | 20.2% |
| Celta by 1 | 24.9% |
| Draw | 18.0% |
| Granada by 1 | 8.5% |
| Granada by 2 | 2.8% |
| Granada by 3+ | 1.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celta | 16 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.09 | −0.09 |
 Granada | 12 | 1 | 0.91 | +0.09 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 15' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 68' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 75' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shot | 0.23 |
When it happened
Celta’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | John Guidetti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% GRA |
| 2 | 9' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +6% GRA |
| 3 | 15' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +5% CEL |
| 4 | 39' | Jean-Sylvain Claude Babin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% CEL |
| 5 | 54' | Adalberto Peñaranda Maestre didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +9% CEL |
| 6 | 68' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +31% GRA |
| 7 | 72' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% GRA |
| 8 | 75' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +31% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Celta 68% · draw 19% · Granada 13%
- Final margin
- Celta by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Granada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Celta 70% · draw 18% · Granada 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Celta win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 35 matches, 2015-16 · Celta · Granada
More from matchday 35, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 4–0 Espanyol Apr 22, 2016 · replay 44% for Las Palmas
- Eibar 1–1 Deportivo Apr 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Atlético 1–0 Málaga Apr 23, 2016 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Rayo 2–3 Real Madrid Apr 23, 2016 · replay 51% for Real Madrid
- Barcelona 6–0 Sporting Apr 23, 2016 · replay 99% for Barcelona
- Villarreal 0–0 Real Sociedad Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 41% draws
- Sevilla 2–0 Betis Apr 24, 2016 · replay 74% for Sevilla
- Levante 2–2 Athletic Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Getafe 2–2 Valencia Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 11% draws