Matchday 35 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 24, 2016
Levante 2–2 Athletic: who deserved to win?
Levante and Athletic drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Levante win 3 of 10, Athletic 4, and 3 end level. Athletic made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.7. An own goal helped Levante.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Levante | 2 | 0.74 |
 Athletic Club | 2 | 1.16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Levante about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 3, 3 end level, Athletic win 4.
- 1 LEV 1 ATH 0
- 2 LEV 2 ATH 1
- 3 LEV 2 ATH 0
- 4 LEV 1 ATH 1
- 5 LEV 0 ATH 0
- 6 LEV 1 ATH 1
- 7 LEV 0 ATH 3
- 8 LEV 0 ATH 2
- 9 LEV 0 ATH 1
- 10 LEV 3 ATH 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 30%, 33% end level, Athletic win 37%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 2.5% |
| Levante by 2 | 7.2% |
| Levante by 1 | 20.4% |
| Draw | 33.1% |
| Athletic by 1 | 23.3% |
| Athletic by 2 | 9.4% |
| Athletic by 3+ | 4.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 10 | 1 | 0.74 | +0.26 |
 Athletic | 19 | 2 | 1.16 | +0.84 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Víctor Casadesús Castaño scored from a shot | 0.41 |
| 87' | Markel Susaeta Laskurain scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 90' | Mikel San José Domínguez scored from a shot | 0.13 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Víctor Casadesús Castaño scored from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +14% LEV |
| 2 | 39' | Eneko Bóveda Altube didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% LEV |
| 3 | 53' | Borja Viguera Manzanares didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +7% LEV |
| 4 | 53' | Mikel Balenziaga Oruesagasti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% LEV |
| 5 | 57' | Iker Muniain Goñi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% LEV |
| 6 | 67' | Own goal by nan, for LevanteOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +8% LEV |
| 7 | 90' | Mikel San José Domínguez scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +43% ATH |
| 8 | 92' | Víctor Camarasa Ferrando didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +5% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 22% · draw 31% · Athletic 47%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Levante
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 30% · draw 33% · Athletic 37% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 35, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 4–0 Espanyol Apr 22, 2016 · replay 44% for Las Palmas
- Eibar 1–1 Deportivo Apr 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Atlético 1–0 Málaga Apr 23, 2016 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Rayo 2–3 Real Madrid Apr 23, 2016 · replay 51% for Real Madrid
- Barcelona 6–0 Sporting Apr 23, 2016 · replay 99% for Barcelona
- Villarreal 0–0 Real Sociedad Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 41% draws
- Sevilla 2–0 Betis Apr 24, 2016 · replay 74% for Sevilla
- Getafe 2–2 Valencia Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 11% draws
- Celta 2–1 Granada Apr 25, 2016 · replay 79% for Celta