Matchday 35 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 23, 2016
Eibar 1–1 Deportivo: who deserved to win?
Eibar and Deportivo drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Eibar win 4 of 10, Deportivo 2, and 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.6 expected goals to 0.4).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 1 | 0.56 |
 Deportivo La Coruña | 1 | 0.39 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −11 Eibar about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eibar win 4, 4 end level, Deportivo win 2.
- 1 EIB 1 DEP 0
- 2 EIB 1 DEP 0
- 3 EIB 1 DEP 0
- 4 EIB 2 DEP 0
- 5 EIB 1 DEP 1
- 6 EIB 0 DEP 0
- 7 EIB 0 DEP 0
- 8 EIB 0 DEP 0
- 9 EIB 0 DEP 1
- 10 EIB 0 DEP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Eibar win 39%, 44% end level, Deportivo win 18%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eibar by 3+ | 2.4% |
| Eibar by 2 | 9.3% |
| Eibar by 1 | 27.2% |
| Draw | 43.5% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 14.4% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 2.7% |
| Deportivo by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 9 | 1 | 0.56 | +0.44 |
 Deportivo | 9 | 1 | 0.39 | +0.61 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Adrián González Morales scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 70' | Federico Nicolás Cartabia scored from a shot | 0.04 |
When it happened
Eibar’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Adrián González Morales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% DEP |
| 2 | 7' | Adrián González Morales scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +21% EIB |
| 3 | 26' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +2% DEP |
| 4 | 38' | Fayçal Fajr didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% EIB |
| 5 | 54' | Laureano Sanabria Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% EIB |
| 6 | 62' | Federico Nicolás Cartabia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% EIB |
| 7 | 70' | Federico Nicolás Cartabia scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +36% DEP |
| 8 | 76' | Mauro Javier Dos Santos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% DEP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eibar 33% · draw 45% · Deportivo 21%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eibar by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Eibar 39% · draw 44% · Deportivo 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 35 matches, 2015-16 · Eibar · Deportivo
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