Matchday 35 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 23, 2016
Rayo 2–3 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Rayo 3–2, but the replays call it even: Real Madrid win 4 of 10, Rayo 4, 2 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 1.36 |
 Real Madrid | 3 | 1.66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Real Madrid lucky · −49 Rayo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 4, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 4.
- 1 RAY 3 RMA 2
- 2 RAY 2 RMA 1
- 3 RAY 4 RMA 2
- 4 RAY 3 RMA 0
- 5 RAY 1 RMA 1
- 6 RAY 0 RMA 0
- 7 RAY 1 RMA 4
- 8 RAY 0 RMA 2
- 9 RAY 1 RMA 2
- 10 RAY 1 RMA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 37%, 23% end level, Real Madrid win 40%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 7.2% |
| Rayo by 2 | 10.8% |
| Rayo by 1 | 19.1% |
| Draw | 23.2% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 20.2% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 11.9% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 7.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 11 | 2 | 1.36 | +0.64 |
 Real Madrid | 16 | 3 | 1.66 | +1.34 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Adrián Embarba Blázquez scored from a shot | 0.57 |
| 13' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shot | 0.50 |
| 34' | Gareth Frank Bale scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 51' | Lucas Vázquez Iglesias scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 80' | Gareth Frank Bale scored from a shot | 0.32 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Adrián Embarba Blázquez scored from a shotFinishing · 57% chance | +10% RAY |
| 2 | 11' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +6% RAY |
| 3 | 13' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +6% RAY |
| 4 | 34' | Gareth Frank Bale scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +11% RMA |
| 5 | 51' | Lucas Vázquez Iglesias scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +28% RMA |
| 6 | 58' | Jesé Rodríguez Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +8% RAY |
| 7 | 59' | Lucas Vázquez Iglesias didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +6% RAY |
| 8 | 80' | The game turned hereGareth Frank Bale scored from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +30% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 31% · draw 25% · Real Madrid 43%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 37% · draw 23% · Real Madrid 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 35, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 4–0 Espanyol Apr 22, 2016 · replay 44% for Las Palmas
- Eibar 1–1 Deportivo Apr 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Atlético 1–0 Málaga Apr 23, 2016 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Barcelona 6–0 Sporting Apr 23, 2016 · replay 99% for Barcelona
- Villarreal 0–0 Real Sociedad Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 41% draws
- Sevilla 2–0 Betis Apr 24, 2016 · replay 74% for Sevilla
- Levante 2–2 Athletic Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Getafe 2–2 Valencia Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 11% draws
- Celta 2–1 Granada Apr 25, 2016 · replay 79% for Celta