Matchday 37 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 8, 2016
Celta 1–0 Málaga: who deserved to win?
Celta beat Málaga 1–0, and the replays lean Celta’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Málaga, 2 end level. Celta made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 1 | 1.57 |
 Málaga | 0 | 0.82 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Celta lucky · −26 Málaga
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 6, 2 end level, Málaga win 2.
- 1 CEL 1 MAL 0
- 2 CEL 1 MAL 0
- 3 CEL 2 MAL 0
- 4 CEL 2 MAL 0
- 5 CEL 4 MAL 1
- 6 CEL 4 MAL 0
- 7 CEL 0 MAL 0
- 8 CEL 1 MAL 1
- 9 CEL 2 MAL 3
- 10 CEL 0 MAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Celta win 63%, 23% end level, Málaga win 15%. The line is what actually happened: Celta by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Celta by 3+ | 16.4% |
| Celta by 2 | 20.0% |
| Celta by 1 | 26.3% |
| Draw | 22.6% |
| Málaga by 1 | 10.3% |
| Málaga by 2 | 3.5% |
| Málaga by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celta | 12 | 1 | 1.57 | −0.57 |
 Málaga | 13 | 0 | 0.82 | −0.82 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 30' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shot | 0.93 |
When it happened
Celta’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shotFinishing · 93% chance | +2% CEL |
| 2 | 44' | José Luis García del Pozo didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +2% CEL |
| 3 | 53' | Ignacio Camacho Barnola didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% CEL |
| 4 | 57' | Ignacio Camacho Barnola didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% CEL |
| 5 | 79' | Christian Atsu Twasam didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% CEL |
| 6 | 81' | Ignacio Camacho Barnola didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% CEL |
| 7 | 87' | Ikechukwu Uche didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% CEL |
| 8 | 92' | Sérgio Paulo Barbosa Valente didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +3% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Celta 60% · draw 26% · Málaga 15%
- Final margin
- Celta by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Celta 63% · draw 23% · Málaga 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Celta win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 37, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Atlético May 8, 2016 · replay 33% for Levante
- Eibar 1–1 Betis May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Real Madrid 3–2 Valencia May 8, 2016 · replay 72% for Real Madrid
- Las Palmas 0–0 Athletic May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 57% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Sporting May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Rayo May 8, 2016 · replay 68% for Real Sociedad
- Sevilla 1–4 Granada May 8, 2016 · replay 72% for Granada
- Villarreal 0–2 Deportivo May 8, 2016 · replay 51% for Deportivo
- Barcelona 5–0 Espanyol May 8, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona