Matchday 37 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 8, 2016
Getafe 1–1 Sporting: who deserved to win?
Getafe and Sporting drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Getafe win 5 of 10, Sporting 2, and 3 end level. Getafe made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 1 | 1.40 |
 Sporting Gijón | 1 | 0.61 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −17 Getafe about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 5, 3 end level, Sporting win 2.
- 1 GET 2 SPO 1
- 2 GET 2 SPO 1
- 3 GET 1 SPO 0
- 4 GET 3 SPO 1
- 5 GET 3 SPO 0
- 6 GET 1 SPO 1
- 7 GET 0 SPO 0
- 8 GET 0 SPO 0
- 9 GET 1 SPO 2
- 10 GET 0 SPO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 53%, 28% end level, Sporting win 20%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 9.2% |
| Getafe by 2 | 14.8% |
| Getafe by 1 | 28.8% |
| Draw | 27.6% |
| Sporting by 1 | 14.7% |
| Sporting by 2 | 3.6% |
| Sporting by 3+ | 1.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 19 | 1 | 1.40 | −0.40 |
 Sporting | 9 | 1 | 0.61 | +0.39 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 45' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 49' | Sergio Álvarez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 79' | Stefan Šćepović scored from a shot | 0.19 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
As low as 8% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +11% SPO |
| 2 | 49' | Sergio Álvarez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +25% SPO |
| 3 | 65' | Emiliano Buendía didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% SPO |
| 4 | 68' | Pedro León Sánchez Gil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% SPO |
| 5 | 69' | Álvaro Medrán Just didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% SPO |
| 6 | 79' | Stefan Šćepović scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +36% GET |
| 7 | 88' | Pedro León Sánchez Gil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% SPO |
| 8 | 90' | Ismael López Blanco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% GET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 56% · draw 28% · Sporting 16%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Sporting
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Getafe by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 53% · draw 28% · Sporting 20% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 37 matches, 2015-16 · Getafe · Sporting
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