Matchday 37 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 8, 2016
Eibar 1–1 Betis: who deserved to win?
Eibar and Betis drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Eibar win 6 of 10, Betis 2, and 2 end level. Eibar made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 1 | 2.39 |
 Real Betis | 1 | 1.06 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −21 Eibar about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eibar win 6, 2 end level, Betis win 2.
- 1 EIB 3 BET 2
- 2 EIB 2 BET 1
- 3 EIB 4 BET 2
- 4 EIB 3 BET 1
- 5 EIB 3 BET 0
- 6 EIB 5 BET 1
- 7 EIB 1 BET 1
- 8 EIB 2 BET 2
- 9 EIB 1 BET 3
- 10 EIB 0 BET 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Eibar win 62%, 19% end level, Betis win 19%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eibar by 3+ | 20.7% |
| Eibar by 2 | 18.6% |
| Eibar by 1 | 22.6% |
| Draw | 19.3% |
| Betis by 1 | 11.7% |
| Betis by 2 | 5.0% |
| Betis by 3+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 22 | 1 | 2.39 | −1.39 |
 Betis | 6 | 1 | 1.06 | −0.06 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 36' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shot | 0.70 |
| 59' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shot | 0.44 |
| 72' | Sergio Enrich Ametller scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 76' | Sergio Enrich Ametller didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 76' | Sergio Enrich Ametller didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
When it happened
Eibar’s chance of winning
As low as 12% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +7% EIB |
| 2 | 36' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 70% chance | +9% BET |
| 3 | 59' | Sergio Gontán Gallardo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% BET |
| 4 | 59' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +16% BET |
| 5 | 70' | Saúl Berjón Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% BET |
| 6 | 72' | Sergio Enrich Ametller scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +32% EIB |
| 7 | 76' | Sergio Enrich Ametller didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +13% BET |
| 8 | 76' | Sergio Enrich Ametller didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +14% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eibar 69% · draw 20% · Betis 11%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eibar by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Eibar 62% · draw 19% · Betis 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 37 matches, 2015-16 · Eibar · Betis
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