Matchday 37 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 8, 2016
Sevilla 1–4 Granada: who deserved to win?
Granada beat Sevilla 4–1, and the replays lean Granada’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Sevilla, 2 end level. Granada made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 1 | 1.30 |
 Granada | 4 | 1.97 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Granada lucky · −28 Sevilla
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sevilla win 2, 2 end level, Granada win 6.
- 1 SEV 3 GRA 2
- 2 SEV 2 GRA 0
- 3 SEV 1 GRA 1
- 4 SEV 0 GRA 0
- 5 SEV 0 GRA 4
- 6 SEV 0 GRA 3
- 7 SEV 2 GRA 4
- 8 SEV 0 GRA 2
- 9 SEV 1 GRA 2
- 10 SEV 0 GRA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sevilla win 19%, 18% end level, Granada win 63%. The line is what actually happened: Granada by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sevilla by 3+ | 2.4% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 4.9% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 11.7% |
| Draw | 18.0% |
| Granada by 1 | 21.3% |
| Granada by 2 | 19.4% |
| Granada by 3+ | 22.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 12 | 1 | 1.30 | −0.30 |
 Granada | 11 (1 pen) | 4 | 1.97 | +2.03 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | Juan Muñoz Muñoz didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 45' | Juan Isaac Cuenca López scored from a shot | 0.42 |
| 72' | Diego González Polanco scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 78' | Jean-Sylvain Claude Babin scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 85' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 87' | Juan Isaac Cuenca López scored from a shot | 0.35 |
When it happened
Sevilla’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Francisco José Sánchez Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% GRA |
| 2 | 13' | Juan Muñoz Muñoz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +7% GRA |
| 3 | 19' | Juan Muñoz Muñoz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% GRA |
| 4 | 45' | Juan Isaac Cuenca López scored from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +19% GRA |
| 5 | 62' | Yevhen Konoplyanka didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% GRA |
| 6 | 62' | Sergio Escudero Palomo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% GRA |
| 7 | 72' | Diego González Polanco scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +30% SEV |
| 8 | 78' | The game turned hereJean-Sylvain Claude Babin scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +36% GRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sevilla 6% · draw 13% · Granada 80%
- Final margin
- Granada by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for Granada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Granada by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Sevilla 19% · draw 18% · Granada 63% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Granada win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 37 matches, 2015-16 · Sevilla · Granada
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