Matchday 37 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 8, 2016
Real Madrid 3–2 Valencia: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Valencia 3–2, and the replays lean Real Madrid’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Valencia, 2 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 3 | 2.11 |
 Valencia | 2 | 1.83 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Real Madrid lucky · −28 Valencia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 6, 2 end level, Valencia win 2.
- 1 RMA 2 VAL 1
- 2 RMA 2 VAL 1
- 3 RMA 5 VAL 3
- 4 RMA 3 VAL 0
- 5 RMA 4 VAL 0
- 6 RMA 7 VAL 2
- 7 RMA 5 VAL 5
- 8 RMA 1 VAL 1
- 9 RMA 1 VAL 3
- 10 RMA 0 VAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Madrid win 63%, 19% end level, Valencia win 18%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 23.5% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 18.4% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 21.0% |
| Draw | 18.9% |
| Valencia by 1 | 11.0% |
| Valencia by 2 | 5.0% |
| Valencia by 3+ | 2.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 15 | 3 | 2.11 | +0.89 |
 Valencia | 17 | 2 | 1.83 | +0.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 25' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 41' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 41' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 54' | Rodrigo Moreno Machado scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 58' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 70' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 79' | Rodrigo Moreno Machado didn’t score from a shot | 0.46 |
| 80' | André Filipe Tavares Gomes scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +7% VAL |
| 2 | 25' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +21% RMA |
| 3 | 36' | João Pedro Cavaco Cancelo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% RMA |
| 4 | 41' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +4% VAL |
| 5 | 41' | Karim Benzema scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +9% RMA |
| 6 | 54' | Rodrigo Moreno Machado scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +10% VAL |
| 7 | 58' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +8% RMA |
| 8 | 80' | André Filipe Tavares Gomes scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +5% VAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Madrid 45% · draw 21% · Valencia 34%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Madrid 63% · draw 19% · Valencia 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 37, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Atlético May 8, 2016 · replay 33% for Levante
- Eibar 1–1 Betis May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Las Palmas 0–0 Athletic May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 57% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Sporting May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Rayo May 8, 2016 · replay 68% for Real Sociedad
- Sevilla 1–4 Granada May 8, 2016 · replay 72% for Granada
- Villarreal 0–2 Deportivo May 8, 2016 · replay 51% for Deportivo
- Celta 1–0 Málaga May 8, 2016 · replay 74% for Celta
- Barcelona 5–0 Espanyol May 8, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona