Matchday 37 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 8, 2016
Villarreal 0–2 Deportivo: who deserved to win?
Deportivo beat Villarreal 2–0, but the replays call it even: Deportivo win 3 of 10, Villarreal 3, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.6 expected goals to 0.4).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 0 | 0.63 |
 Deportivo La Coruña | 2 | 0.44 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Deportivo lucky · −49 Villarreal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 3, 4 end level, Deportivo win 3.
- 1 VIL 1 DEP 0
- 2 VIL 1 DEP 0
- 3 VIL 2 DEP 0
- 4 VIL 0 DEP 0
- 5 VIL 0 DEP 0
- 6 VIL 0 DEP 0
- 7 VIL 0 DEP 0
- 8 VIL 0 DEP 2
- 9 VIL 1 DEP 2
- 10 VIL 0 DEP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 27%, 43% end level, Deportivo win 30%. The line is what actually happened: Deportivo by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 0.8% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 6.0% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 20.6% |
| Draw | 42.8% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 22.7% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 5.9% |
| Deportivo by 3+ | 1.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 11 | 0 | 0.63 | −0.63 |
 Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 0.44 | +1.56 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 31' | Fayçal Fajr scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 56' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shot | 0.21 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% VIL |
| 2 | 6' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% VIL |
| 3 | 11' | Leonardo Carrilho Baptistão didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% DEP |
| 4 | 25' | Leonardo Carrilho Baptistão didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% DEP |
| 5 | 31' | The game turned hereFayçal Fajr scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +28% DEP |
| 6 | 33' | Mario Gaspar Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% DEP |
| 7 | 56' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +12% DEP |
| 8 | 61' | Leonardo Carrilho Baptistão didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +2% DEP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 12% · draw 24% · Deportivo 65%
- Final margin
- Deportivo by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Deportivo by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 27% · draw 43% · Deportivo 30% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Deportivo win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 37, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Atlético May 8, 2016 · replay 33% for Levante
- Eibar 1–1 Betis May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Real Madrid 3–2 Valencia May 8, 2016 · replay 72% for Real Madrid
- Las Palmas 0–0 Athletic May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 57% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Sporting May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Rayo May 8, 2016 · replay 68% for Real Sociedad
- Sevilla 1–4 Granada May 8, 2016 · replay 72% for Granada
- Celta 1–0 Málaga May 8, 2016 · replay 74% for Celta
- Barcelona 5–0 Espanyol May 8, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona