Matchday 37 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 8, 2016
Levante 2–1 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Levante beat Atlético 2–1, but the replays lean toward Atlético: 5 wins in 10 to Levante’s 2, 3 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Levante | 2 | 0.83 |
 Atlético Madrid | 1 | 1.49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Levante very lucky · −67 Atlético
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 2, 3 end level, Atlético win 5.
- 1 LEV 1 ATM 0
- 2 LEV 2 ATM 0
- 3 LEV 1 ATM 1
- 4 LEV 0 ATM 0
- 5 LEV 1 ATM 1
- 6 LEV 0 ATM 4
- 7 LEV 0 ATM 2
- 8 LEV 0 ATM 2
- 9 LEV 2 ATM 3
- 10 LEV 0 ATM 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 20%, 26% end level, Atlético win 54%. The line is what actually happened: Levante by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 1.7% |
| Levante by 2 | 4.9% |
| Levante by 1 | 13.0% |
| Draw | 26.4% |
| Atlético by 1 | 24.9% |
| Atlético by 2 | 16.9% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 12.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 11 | 2 | 0.83 | +1.17 |
 Atlético | 17 | 1 | 1.49 | −0.49 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 29' | Víctor Casadesús Castaño scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 53' | Stefan Savić didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 89' | Giuseppe Rossi scored from a shot | 0.32 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +17% ATM |
| 2 | 29' | The game turned hereVíctor Casadesús Castaño scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +27% LEV |
| 3 | 51' | Saúl Ñíguez Esclapez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% LEV |
| 4 | 53' | Stefan Savić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +11% LEV |
| 5 | 73' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% LEV |
| 6 | 75' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +3% LEV |
| 7 | 82' | Giuseppe Rossi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% ATM |
| 8 | 89' | Giuseppe Rossi scored from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +34% LEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 21% · draw 25% · Atlético 54%
- Final margin
- Levante by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Levante
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 20% · draw 26% · Atlético 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Levante win 33% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 37, 2015-16
- Eibar 1–1 Betis May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Real Madrid 3–2 Valencia May 8, 2016 · replay 72% for Real Madrid
- Las Palmas 0–0 Athletic May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 57% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Sporting May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Rayo May 8, 2016 · replay 68% for Real Sociedad
- Sevilla 1–4 Granada May 8, 2016 · replay 72% for Granada
- Villarreal 0–2 Deportivo May 8, 2016 · replay 51% for Deportivo
- Celta 1–0 Málaga May 8, 2016 · replay 74% for Celta
- Barcelona 5–0 Espanyol May 8, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona