Matchday 37 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 8, 2016
Barcelona 5–0 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Espanyol 5–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 9 of 10. Barcelona made the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 0.5.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Barcelona about even · −4 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 9, 0 end level, Espanyol win 1.
- 1 BAR 2 ESP 1
- 2 BAR 3 ESP 1
- 3 BAR 3 ESP 0
- 4 BAR 3 ESP 0
- 5 BAR 4 ESP 0
- 6 BAR 4 ESP 0
- 7 BAR 5 ESP 0
- 8 BAR 6 ESP 0
- 9 BAR 7 ESP 0
- 10 BAR 1 ESP 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Barcelona win 94%, 5% end level, Espanyol win 2%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 5.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Barcelona by 3+ | 68.0% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 16.0% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 9.9% |
| Draw | 4.5% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 1.3% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 0.2% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 14 | 5 | 2.93 | +2.07 |
 Espanyol | 4 | 0 | 0.49 | −0.49 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a free kick | 0.08 |
| 30' | Víctor Guillermo Álvarez Delgado didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 51' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.45 |
| 60' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 73' | Rafael Alcântara do Nascimento scored from a shot | 0.76 |
| 82' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.54 |
When it happened
Barcelona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +21% BAR |
| 2 | 9' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% ESP |
| 3 | 9' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +4% ESP |
| 4 | 21' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +2% ESP |
| 5 | 29' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% BAR |
| 6 | 30' | Víctor Guillermo Álvarez Delgado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +8% BAR |
| 7 | 51' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +6% BAR |
| 8 | 60' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Barcelona 100% · draw 0% · Espanyol 0%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 5
- Luck in goals
- 1.9 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 3.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Barcelona 94% · draw 5% · Espanyol 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 96% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 37, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Atlético May 8, 2016 · replay 33% for Levante
- Eibar 1–1 Betis May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Real Madrid 3–2 Valencia May 8, 2016 · replay 72% for Real Madrid
- Las Palmas 0–0 Athletic May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 57% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Sporting May 8, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Rayo May 8, 2016 · replay 68% for Real Sociedad
- Sevilla 1–4 Granada May 8, 2016 · replay 72% for Granada
- Villarreal 0–2 Deportivo May 8, 2016 · replay 51% for Deportivo
- Celta 1–0 Málaga May 8, 2016 · replay 74% for Celta