luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 37 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 8, 2016

Las Palmas 0–0 Athletic: who deserved to win?

Las Palmas and Athletic drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Las Palmas win 1 of 10, Athletic 3, and 6 end level. The chances were close to even (0.2 expected goals to 0.4).

Full time

GoalsxG
Las Palmas 0 0.19
Athletic Club 0 0.38

May 8, 2016 · Estadio de Gran Canaria · Referee: Pedro Jesús Pérez Montero

Luck index +8 Las Palmas about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Las Palmas win 1, 6 end level, Athletic win 3.

  1. 1 LPA 1 ATH 0
  2. 2 LPA 0 ATH 0
  3. 3 LPA 0 ATH 0
  4. 4 LPA 0 ATH 0
  5. 5 LPA 0 ATH 0
  6. 6 LPA 0 ATH 0
  7. 7 LPA 0 ATH 0
  8. 8 LPA 0 ATH 2
  9. 9 LPA 0 ATH 1
  10. 10 LPA 0 ATH 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Las Palmas win 14%, 57% end level, Athletic win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Las Palmas by 3+0.2%
Las Palmas by 21.6%
Las Palmas by 111.8%
Draw57.2%
Athletic by 123.9%
Athletic by 24.6%
Athletic by 3+0.8%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Las Palmas400.19−0.19
Athletic900.38−0.38

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

Las Palmas’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Las Palmas was ahead in it, below while Athletic was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 14' Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance +4% LPA
2 16' Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance +1% LPA
3 54' Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% LPA
4 60' Mikel San José Domínguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% LPA
5 80' Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +3% ATH
6 89' Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +5% ATH
7 91' Mikel San José Domínguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +2% LPA
8 92' Ander Iturraspe Derteano didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance +1% LPA

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Las Palmas 14% · draw 57% · Athletic 29%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.1 for Las Palmas
Luck-adjusted margin
Athletic by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Las Palmas 14% · draw 57% · Athletic 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 37 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Athletic

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Every match of matchday 37, 2015-16