Matchday 2 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 15, 2015
Swansea 2–0 Newcastle: who deserved to win?
Swansea beat Newcastle 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Swansea win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Swansea made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 2 | 1.81 |
 Newcastle United | 0 | 0.13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Swansea about even · −9 Newcastle
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 8, 1 ends level, Newcastle win 1.
- 1 SWA 1 NEW 0
- 2 SWA 1 NEW 0
- 3 SWA 2 NEW 0
- 4 SWA 2 NEW 0
- 5 SWA 2 NEW 0
- 6 SWA 3 NEW 0
- 7 SWA 3 NEW 0
- 8 SWA 4 NEW 0
- 9 SWA 1 NEW 1
- 10 SWA 0 NEW 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 84%, 14% end level, Newcastle win 2%. The line is what actually happened: Swansea by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 33.7% |
| Swansea by 2 | 24.0% |
| Swansea by 1 | 25.9% |
| Draw | 14.2% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 2.0% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 0.1% |
| Newcastle by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 19 | 2 | 1.81 | +0.19 |
 Newcastle | 4 | 0 | 0.13 | −0.13 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | Bafétimbi Gomis scored from a shot | 0.96 |
| 51' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% NEW |
| 2 | 2' | Jonjo Shelvey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% NEW |
| 3 | 6' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% NEW |
| 4 | 8' | Bafétimbi Gomis scored from a shotFinishing · 96% chance | +1% SWA |
| 5 | 9' | Gabriel Antoine Obertan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% SWA |
| 6 | 15' | Gabriel Antoine Obertan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% SWA |
| 7 | 30' | Moussa Sissoko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% SWA |
| 8 | 51' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +10% SWA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 97% · draw 2% · Newcastle 0%
- Final margin
- Swansea by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Swansea by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 84% · draw 14% · Newcastle 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Swansea win 91% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 2 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · Newcastle
More from matchday 2, 2015-16
- Aston Villa 0–1 Man United Aug 14, 2015 · replay 62% for Man United
- Sunderland 1–3 Norwich Aug 15, 2015 · replay 83% for Norwich
- Tottenham 2–2 Stoke Aug 15, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- West Ham 1–2 Leicester Aug 15, 2015 · replay 68% for Leicester
- Southampton 0–3 Everton Aug 15, 2015 · replay 56% for Everton
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- Crystal Palace 1–2 Arsenal Aug 16, 2015 · replay 67% for Arsenal
- Man City 3–0 Chelsea Aug 16, 2015 · replay 79% for Man City
- Liverpool 1–0 Bournemouth Aug 17, 2015 · replay 79% for Liverpool