Matchday 2 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 15, 2015
Southampton 0–3 Everton: who deserved to win?
Everton beat Southampton 3–0, and the replays lean Everton’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Southampton, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.1 expected goals to 0.9).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 0 | 1.06 |
 Everton | 3 | 0.91 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Everton lucky · −44 Southampton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southampton win 3, 3 end level, Everton win 4.
- 1 SOU 1 EVE 0
- 2 SOU 2 EVE 1
- 3 SOU 2 EVE 0
- 4 SOU 1 EVE 1
- 5 SOU 1 EVE 1
- 6 SOU 0 EVE 0
- 7 SOU 0 EVE 3
- 8 SOU 1 EVE 3
- 9 SOU 0 EVE 1
- 10 SOU 1 EVE 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Southampton win 29%, 30% end level, Everton win 41%. The line is what actually happened: Everton by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southampton by 3+ | 2.5% |
| Southampton by 2 | 7.4% |
| Southampton by 1 | 19.2% |
| Draw | 29.8% |
| Everton by 1 | 23.0% |
| Everton by 2 | 12.1% |
| Everton by 3+ | 6.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 17 | 0 | 1.06 | −1.06 |
 Everton | 11 | 3 | 0.91 | +2.09 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 21' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 44' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 83' | Ross Barkley scored from a shot | 0.13 |
When it happened
Southampton’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Arouna Koné didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% SOU |
| 2 | 20' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% EVE |
| 3 | 21' | The game turned hereRomelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +23% EVE |
| 4 | 28' | Ross Barkley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +4% SOU |
| 5 | 34' | Victor Wanyama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% EVE |
| 6 | 44' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +15% EVE |
| 7 | 52' | Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% EVE |
| 8 | 59' | Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +2% EVE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southampton 15% · draw 23% · Everton 61%
- Final margin
- Everton by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.4 for Everton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Everton by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Southampton 29% · draw 30% · Everton 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Everton win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 2 matches, 2015-16 · Southampton · Everton
More from matchday 2, 2015-16
- Aston Villa 0–1 Man United Aug 14, 2015 · replay 62% for Man United
- Sunderland 1–3 Norwich Aug 15, 2015 · replay 83% for Norwich
- Tottenham 2–2 Stoke Aug 15, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
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