Matchday 2 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 15, 2015
Sunderland 1–3 Norwich: who deserved to win?
Norwich beat Sunderland 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Norwich win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Norwich made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 1 | 0.39 |
 Norwich City | 3 | 1.23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Norwich about even · −17 Sunderland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 1, 2 end level, Norwich win 7.
- 1 SUN 2 NOR 1
- 2 SUN 0 NOR 0
- 3 SUN 0 NOR 0
- 4 SUN 0 NOR 3
- 5 SUN 0 NOR 3
- 6 SUN 0 NOR 2
- 7 SUN 0 NOR 2
- 8 SUN 0 NOR 1
- 9 SUN 0 NOR 1
- 10 SUN 0 NOR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 6%, 22% end level, Norwich win 72%. The line is what actually happened: Norwich by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 0.6% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 5.2% |
| Draw | 22.4% |
| Norwich by 1 | 29.0% |
| Norwich by 2 | 23.2% |
| Norwich by 3+ | 19.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 0.39 | +0.61 |
 Norwich | 18 | 3 | 1.23 | +1.77 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 25' | Russell Martin scored from a shot | 0.25 |
| 36' | Steven Whittaker scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 56' | Nathan Redmond scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 87' | Duncan Watmore scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20' | Robert Brady didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 4% chance | +1% SUN |
| 2 | 20' | Jonathan Howson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% SUN |
| 3 | 24' | Jonathan Howson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% SUN |
| 4 | 25' | The game turned hereRussell Martin scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +21% NOR |
| 5 | 36' | Steven Whittaker scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +15% NOR |
| 6 | 40' | Steven Fletcher didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% NOR |
| 7 | 52' | Younes Kaboul didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% NOR |
| 8 | 56' | Nathan Redmond scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% NOR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 3% · draw 10% · Norwich 87%
- Final margin
- Norwich by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Norwich
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Norwich by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 6% · draw 22% · Norwich 72% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Norwich win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 2 matches, 2015-16 · Sunderland · Norwich
More from matchday 2, 2015-16
- Aston Villa 0–1 Man United Aug 14, 2015 · replay 62% for Man United
- Tottenham 2–2 Stoke Aug 15, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Swansea 2–0 Newcastle Aug 15, 2015 · replay 91% for Swansea
- West Ham 1–2 Leicester Aug 15, 2015 · replay 68% for Leicester
- Southampton 0–3 Everton Aug 15, 2015 · replay 56% for Everton
- Watford 0–0 West Brom Aug 15, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Arsenal Aug 16, 2015 · replay 67% for Arsenal
- Man City 3–0 Chelsea Aug 16, 2015 · replay 79% for Man City
- Liverpool 1–0 Bournemouth Aug 17, 2015 · replay 79% for Liverpool