Matchday 2 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 15, 2015
Tottenham 2–2 Stoke: who deserved to win?
Tottenham and Stoke drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Tottenham win 4 of 10, Stoke 4, and 2 end level. Stoke made the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 1.42 |
 Stoke City | 2 | 2.60 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Tottenham about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 4, 2 end level, Stoke win 4.
- 1 TOT 1 STK 0
- 2 TOT 3 STK 2
- 3 TOT 2 STK 0
- 4 TOT 3 STK 0
- 5 TOT 2 STK 2
- 6 TOT 1 STK 1
- 7 TOT 2 STK 5
- 8 TOT 1 STK 3
- 9 TOT 2 STK 4
- 10 TOT 1 STK 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tottenham win 35%, 21% end level, Stoke win 43%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tottenham by 3+ | 7.7% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 10.8% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 16.8% |
| Draw | 21.4% |
| Stoke by 1 | 18.3% |
| Stoke by 2 | 13.6% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 11.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tottenham | 13 | 2 | 1.42 | +0.58 |
 Stoke | 15 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.60 | −0.60 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 18' | Eric Dier scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 45' | Ryan Mason didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 46' | Nacer Chadli scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 51' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 77' | Marko Arnautović scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 82' | Mame Biram Diouf scored from a shot | 0.73 |
When it happened
Tottenham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Marco van Ginkel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% TOT |
| 2 | 18' | Eric Dier scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +22% TOT |
| 3 | 43' | Mame Biram Diouf didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +8% TOT |
| 4 | 45' | Ryan Mason didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +4% STK |
| 5 | 46' | Nacer Chadli scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +10% TOT |
| 6 | 82' | Mame Biram Diouf scored from a shotFinishing · 73% chance | +12% STK |
| 7 | 86' | Stephen Ireland didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +10% TOT |
| 8 | 88' | Mame Biram Diouf didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tottenham 13% · draw 20% · Stoke 67%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stoke by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Tottenham 35% · draw 21% · Stoke 43% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 2 matches, 2015-16 · Tottenham · Stoke
More from matchday 2, 2015-16
- Aston Villa 0–1 Man United Aug 14, 2015 · replay 62% for Man United
- Sunderland 1–3 Norwich Aug 15, 2015 · replay 83% for Norwich
- Swansea 2–0 Newcastle Aug 15, 2015 · replay 91% for Swansea
- West Ham 1–2 Leicester Aug 15, 2015 · replay 68% for Leicester
- Southampton 0–3 Everton Aug 15, 2015 · replay 56% for Everton
- Watford 0–0 West Brom Aug 15, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Arsenal Aug 16, 2015 · replay 67% for Arsenal
- Man City 3–0 Chelsea Aug 16, 2015 · replay 79% for Man City
- Liverpool 1–0 Bournemouth Aug 17, 2015 · replay 79% for Liverpool