Matchday 2 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 14, 2015
Aston Villa 0–1 Man United: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Aston Villa 1–0, and the replays lean Man United’s way: 4 wins in 10, 2 for Aston Villa, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.3 expected goals to 0.5).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 0 | 0.32 |
 Manchester United | 1 | 0.54 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Man United lucky · −38 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 2, 4 end level, Man United win 4.
- 1 AVL 1 MUN 0
- 2 AVL 1 MUN 0
- 3 AVL 1 MUN 1
- 4 AVL 0 MUN 0
- 5 AVL 0 MUN 0
- 6 AVL 1 MUN 1
- 7 AVL 0 MUN 2
- 8 AVL 0 MUN 1
- 9 AVL 0 MUN 1
- 10 AVL 2 MUN 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Aston Villa win 16%, 45% end level, Man United win 39%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 2.4% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 13.2% |
| Draw | 44.8% |
| Man United by 1 | 28.2% |
| Man United by 2 | 8.8% |
| Man United by 3+ | 2.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 5 | 0 | 0.32 | −0.32 |
 Man United | 8 | 1 | 0.54 | +0.46 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 28' | Adnan Januzaj scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Morgan Schneiderlin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% AVL |
| 2 | 22' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% AVL |
| 3 | 28' | The game turned hereAdnan Januzaj scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +26% MUN |
| 4 | 37' | Micah Richards didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% MUN |
| 5 | 47' | Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% MUN |
| 6 | 56' | Idrissa Gana Gueye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% MUN |
| 7 | 72' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +2% AVL |
| 8 | 74' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Aston Villa 18% · draw 47% · Man United 36%
- Final margin
- Man United by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Aston Villa 16% · draw 45% · Man United 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2015-16
- Sunderland 1–3 Norwich Aug 15, 2015 · replay 83% for Norwich
- Tottenham 2–2 Stoke Aug 15, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Swansea 2–0 Newcastle Aug 15, 2015 · replay 91% for Swansea
- West Ham 1–2 Leicester Aug 15, 2015 · replay 68% for Leicester
- Southampton 0–3 Everton Aug 15, 2015 · replay 56% for Everton
- Watford 0–0 West Brom Aug 15, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Arsenal Aug 16, 2015 · replay 67% for Arsenal
- Man City 3–0 Chelsea Aug 16, 2015 · replay 79% for Man City
- Liverpool 1–0 Bournemouth Aug 17, 2015 · replay 79% for Liverpool