Matchday 2 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 16, 2015
Crystal Palace 1–2 Arsenal: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Crystal Palace 2–1, and the replays lean Arsenal’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Crystal Palace, 2 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.3. An own goal helped Arsenal.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 1 | 1.27 |
 Arsenal | 2 | 1.78 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Arsenal lucky · −33 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 2, 2 end level, Arsenal win 6.
- 1 CRY 3 ARS 2
- 2 CRY 2 ARS 0
- 3 CRY 2 ARS 2
- 4 CRY 1 ARS 1
- 5 CRY 0 ARS 4
- 6 CRY 1 ARS 4
- 7 CRY 1 ARS 3
- 8 CRY 0 ARS 1
- 9 CRY 0 ARS 1
- 10 CRY 1 ARS 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Crystal Palace win 23%, 21% end level, Arsenal win 56%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 2.4% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 6.0% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 14.1% |
| Draw | 21.4% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 21.9% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 17.2% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 16.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 11 | 1 | 1.27 | −0.27 |
 Arsenal | 20 | 1 | 1.78 | −0.78 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 15' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 27' | Joel Ward scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 86' | Jordon Mutch didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
When it happened
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% CRY |
| 2 | 15' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +24% ARS |
| 3 | 27' | Joel Ward scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +27% CRY |
| 4 | 47' | Connor Wickham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +7% ARS |
| 5 | 52' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% CRY |
| 6 | 54' | The game turned hereOwn goal by nan, for ArsenalOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +33% ARS |
| 7 | 57' | Jason Puncheon didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% ARS |
| 8 | 86' | Jordon Mutch didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +24% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Crystal Palace 25% · draw 26% · Arsenal 49%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Arsenal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Crystal Palace 23% · draw 21% · Arsenal 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 67% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2015-16
- Aston Villa 0–1 Man United Aug 14, 2015 · replay 62% for Man United
- Sunderland 1–3 Norwich Aug 15, 2015 · replay 83% for Norwich
- Tottenham 2–2 Stoke Aug 15, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Swansea 2–0 Newcastle Aug 15, 2015 · replay 91% for Swansea
- West Ham 1–2 Leicester Aug 15, 2015 · replay 68% for Leicester
- Southampton 0–3 Everton Aug 15, 2015 · replay 56% for Everton
- Watford 0–0 West Brom Aug 15, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Man City 3–0 Chelsea Aug 16, 2015 · replay 79% for Man City
- Liverpool 1–0 Bournemouth Aug 17, 2015 · replay 79% for Liverpool