Matchday 2 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 16, 2015
Man City 3–0 Chelsea: who deserved to win?
Man City beat Chelsea 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man City win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Man City made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 3 | 1.78 |
 Chelsea | 0 | 0.80 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Man City about even · −21 Chelsea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 7, 2 end level, Chelsea win 1.
- 1 MCI 2 CHE 1
- 2 MCI 2 CHE 1
- 3 MCI 2 CHE 1
- 4 MCI 3 CHE 1
- 5 MCI 2 CHE 0
- 6 MCI 3 CHE 0
- 7 MCI 4 CHE 0
- 8 MCI 1 CHE 1
- 9 MCI 1 CHE 1
- 10 MCI 1 CHE 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 69%, 19% end level, Chelsea win 12%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 22.3% |
| Man City by 2 | 21.4% |
| Man City by 1 | 25.4% |
| Draw | 19.3% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 8.5% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 2.5% |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 18 | 3 | 1.78 | +1.22 |
 Chelsea | 11 | 0 | 0.80 | −0.80 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 20' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shot | 0.47 |
| 31' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 77' | Vincent Kompany scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 82' | Fernando Luiz Rosa scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +6% CHE |
| 2 | 19' | Nemanja Matić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% MCI |
| 3 | 20' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +11% CHE |
| 4 | 31' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +22% MCI |
| 5 | 33' | Gary Cahill didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% MCI |
| 6 | 43' | Eliaquim Mangala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +2% CHE |
| 7 | 68' | Eden Hazard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% MCI |
| 8 | 77' | Vincent Kompany scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +6% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 85% · draw 11% · Chelsea 4%
- Final margin
- Man City by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 69% · draw 19% · Chelsea 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2015-16
- Aston Villa 0–1 Man United Aug 14, 2015 · replay 62% for Man United
- Sunderland 1–3 Norwich Aug 15, 2015 · replay 83% for Norwich
- Tottenham 2–2 Stoke Aug 15, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Swansea 2–0 Newcastle Aug 15, 2015 · replay 91% for Swansea
- West Ham 1–2 Leicester Aug 15, 2015 · replay 68% for Leicester
- Southampton 0–3 Everton Aug 15, 2015 · replay 56% for Everton
- Watford 0–0 West Brom Aug 15, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Arsenal Aug 16, 2015 · replay 67% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 1–0 Bournemouth Aug 17, 2015 · replay 79% for Liverpool