Matchday 2 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 15, 2015
West Ham 1–2 Leicester: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat West Ham 2–1, and the replays lean Leicester’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for West Ham, 3 end level. Leicester made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 1 | 0.81 |
 Leicester City | 2 | 1.22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Leicester lucky · −32 West Ham
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 2, 3 end level, Leicester win 5.
- 1 WHU 2 LEI 1
- 2 WHU 2 LEI 0
- 3 WHU 0 LEI 0
- 4 WHU 1 LEI 1
- 5 WHU 1 LEI 1
- 6 WHU 0 LEI 3
- 7 WHU 0 LEI 2
- 8 WHU 0 LEI 1
- 9 WHU 0 LEI 1
- 10 WHU 0 LEI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 18%, 28% end level, Leicester win 54%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 0.8% |
| West Ham by 2 | 3.6% |
| West Ham by 1 | 13.7% |
| Draw | 28.2% |
| Leicester by 1 | 27.4% |
| Leicester by 2 | 16.6% |
| Leicester by 3+ | 9.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 9 | 1 | 0.81 | +0.19 |
 Leicester | 10 | 2 | 1.22 | +0.78 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 26' | Shinji Okazaki scored from a shot | 0.44 |
| 37' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 54' | Dimitri Payet scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25' | Riyad Mahrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% WHU |
| 2 | 26' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% WHU |
| 3 | 26' | Shinji Okazaki scored from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +16% LEI |
| 4 | 37' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +15% LEI |
| 5 | 42' | Cheikhou Kouyaté didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% LEI |
| 6 | 54' | Dimitri Payet scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +14% WHU |
| 7 | 59' | Diafra Sakho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% LEI |
| 8 | 80' | Diafra Sakho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +9% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 22% · draw 29% · Leicester 49%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 18% · draw 28% · Leicester 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 2 matches, 2015-16 · West Ham · Leicester
More from matchday 2, 2015-16
- Aston Villa 0–1 Man United Aug 14, 2015 · replay 62% for Man United
- Sunderland 1–3 Norwich Aug 15, 2015 · replay 83% for Norwich
- Tottenham 2–2 Stoke Aug 15, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Swansea 2–0 Newcastle Aug 15, 2015 · replay 91% for Swansea
- Southampton 0–3 Everton Aug 15, 2015 · replay 56% for Everton
- Watford 0–0 West Brom Aug 15, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Arsenal Aug 16, 2015 · replay 67% for Arsenal
- Man City 3–0 Chelsea Aug 16, 2015 · replay 79% for Man City
- Liverpool 1–0 Bournemouth Aug 17, 2015 · replay 79% for Liverpool