Matchday 2 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 17, 2015
Liverpool 1–0 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Liverpool beat Bournemouth 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 1 | 1.83 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 0 | 0.79 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Liverpool about even · −21 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 7, 2 end level, Bournemouth win 1.
- 1 LIV 2 BOU 1
- 2 LIV 1 BOU 0
- 3 LIV 3 BOU 1
- 4 LIV 2 BOU 0
- 5 LIV 3 BOU 0
- 6 LIV 3 BOU 0
- 7 LIV 4 BOU 0
- 8 LIV 1 BOU 1
- 9 LIV 1 BOU 1
- 10 LIV 0 BOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 70%, 19% end level, Bournemouth win 11%. The line is what actually happened: Liverpool by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 23.9% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 21.3% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 24.4% |
| Draw | 19.1% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 8.4% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 2.4% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 19 | 1 | 1.83 | −0.83 |
 Bournemouth | 13 | 0 | 0.79 | −0.79 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 25' | Christian Benteke Liolo scored from a shot | 0.58 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% LIV |
| 2 | 25' | Christian Benteke Liolo scored from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +11% LIV |
| 3 | 54' | James Philip Milner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +2% BOU |
| 4 | 62' | Eunan O''Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% LIV |
| 5 | 79' | Steve Cook didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% LIV |
| 6 | 84' | Lee Tomlin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% LIV |
| 7 | 85' | Tommy Elphick didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% LIV |
| 8 | 87' | Lee Tomlin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 65% · draw 21% · Bournemouth 14%
- Final margin
- Liverpool by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 70% · draw 19% · Bournemouth 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Liverpool win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2015-16
- Aston Villa 0–1 Man United Aug 14, 2015 · replay 62% for Man United
- Sunderland 1–3 Norwich Aug 15, 2015 · replay 83% for Norwich
- Tottenham 2–2 Stoke Aug 15, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Swansea 2–0 Newcastle Aug 15, 2015 · replay 91% for Swansea
- West Ham 1–2 Leicester Aug 15, 2015 · replay 68% for Leicester
- Southampton 0–3 Everton Aug 15, 2015 · replay 56% for Everton
- Watford 0–0 West Brom Aug 15, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Arsenal Aug 16, 2015 · replay 67% for Arsenal
- Man City 3–0 Chelsea Aug 16, 2015 · replay 79% for Man City