Matchday 3 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 22, 2015
Norwich 1–1 Stoke: who deserved to win?
Norwich and Stoke drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Norwich win 7 of 10, Stoke 1, and 2 end level. Norwich made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 1 | 2.33 |
 Stoke City | 1 | 0.62 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −31 Norwich unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 7, 2 end level, Stoke win 1.
- 1 NOR 1 STK 0
- 2 NOR 2 STK 1
- 3 NOR 2 STK 0
- 4 NOR 2 STK 0
- 5 NOR 4 STK 1
- 6 NOR 3 STK 0
- 7 NOR 5 STK 0
- 8 NOR 1 STK 1
- 9 NOR 1 STK 1
- 10 NOR 0 STK 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 72%, 17% end level, Stoke win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 26.2% |
| Norwich by 2 | 22.1% |
| Norwich by 1 | 24.1% |
| Draw | 17.2% |
| Stoke by 1 | 7.9% |
| Stoke by 2 | 1.9% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 22 | 1 | 2.33 | −1.33 |
 Stoke | 6 | 1 | 0.62 | +0.38 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Mame Biram Diouf scored from a shot | 0.40 |
| 27' | Russell Martin scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 49' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
As low as 29% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Mame Biram Diouf scored from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +15% STK |
| 2 | 27' | Russell Martin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +8% STK |
| 3 | 27' | Russell Martin scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +22% NOR |
| 4 | 49' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +13% STK |
| 5 | 60' | Nathan Redmond didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +9% STK |
| 6 | 85' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +10% STK |
| 7 | 88' | José Luis Sanmartín Mato didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% NOR |
| 8 | 90' | Bradley Johnson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +9% STK |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 79% · draw 15% · Stoke 6%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Stoke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Norwich by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 72% · draw 17% · Stoke 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 3 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · Stoke
More from matchday 3, 2015-16
- Man United 0–0 Newcastle Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- West Ham 3–4 Bournemouth Aug 22, 2015 · replay 83% for Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace 2–1 Aston Villa Aug 22, 2015 · replay 54% for Crystal Palace
- Leicester 1–1 Tottenham Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Sunderland 1–1 Swansea Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Everton 0–2 Man City Aug 23, 2015 · replay 71% for Man City
- Watford 0–0 Southampton Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- West Brom 2–3 Chelsea Aug 23, 2015 · replay 73% for Chelsea
- Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool Aug 24, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws