Matchday 3 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 22, 2015
Man United 0–0 Newcastle: who deserved to win?
Man United and Newcastle drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Man United win 7 of 10, Newcastle 1, and 2 end level. Man United made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 0 | 1.51 |
 Newcastle United | 0 | 0.37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −28 Man United unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 7, 2 end level, Newcastle win 1.
- 1 MUN 1 NEW 0
- 2 MUN 1 NEW 0
- 3 MUN 1 NEW 0
- 4 MUN 2 NEW 0
- 5 MUN 2 NEW 0
- 6 MUN 3 NEW 0
- 7 MUN 4 NEW 0
- 8 MUN 1 NEW 1
- 9 MUN 0 NEW 0
- 10 MUN 0 NEW 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 66%, 24% end level, Newcastle win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 15.5% |
| Man United by 2 | 21.0% |
| Man United by 1 | 29.7% |
| Draw | 24.5% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 7.6% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 1.4% |
| Newcastle by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 20 | 0 | 1.51 | −1.51 |
 Newcastle | 6 | 0 | 0.37 | −0.37 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 79' | Javier Hernández Balcázar didn’t score from a shot | 0.51 |
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% MUN |
| 2 | 72' | Juan Manuel Mata García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% NEW |
| 3 | 75' | Luke Shaw didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% NEW |
| 4 | 79' | Javier Hernández Balcázar didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +22% NEW |
| 5 | 84' | Luis Antonio Valencia Mosquera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% NEW |
| 6 | 90' | Chris Smalling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% NEW |
| 7 | 90' | Papiss Demba Cissé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% MUN |
| 8 | 92' | Michael Carrick didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% NEW |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 69% · draw 23% · Newcastle 7%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Newcastle
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 66% · draw 24% · Newcastle 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 3, 2015-16
- Norwich 1–1 Stoke Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- West Ham 3–4 Bournemouth Aug 22, 2015 · replay 83% for Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace 2–1 Aston Villa Aug 22, 2015 · replay 54% for Crystal Palace
- Leicester 1–1 Tottenham Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Sunderland 1–1 Swansea Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Everton 0–2 Man City Aug 23, 2015 · replay 71% for Man City
- Watford 0–0 Southampton Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- West Brom 2–3 Chelsea Aug 23, 2015 · replay 73% for Chelsea
- Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool Aug 24, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws