Matchday 3 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 24, 2015
Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool: who deserved to win?
Arsenal and Liverpool drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 5 of 10, Liverpool 3, and 2 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 1.4.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −12 Arsenal about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 5, 2 end level, Liverpool win 3.
- 1 ARS 1 LIV 0
- 2 ARS 2 LIV 1
- 3 ARS 2 LIV 0
- 4 ARS 4 LIV 1
- 5 ARS 4 LIV 0
- 6 ARS 1 LIV 1
- 7 ARS 1 LIV 1
- 8 ARS 1 LIV 4
- 9 ARS 0 LIV 2
- 10 ARS 1 LIV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 52%, 21% end level, Liverpool win 27%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 15.4% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 16.7% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 20.1% |
| Draw | 20.6% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 14.1% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 8.7% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 4.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 21 | 0 | 2.11 | −2.11 |
 Liverpool | 18 | 0 | 1.45 | −1.45 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 38' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
| 69' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shot | 0.46 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +5% LIV |
| 2 | 6' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +8% LIV |
| 3 | 23' | James Philip Milner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% ARS |
| 4 | 38' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +15% ARS |
| 5 | 59' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +8% LIV |
| 6 | 69' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +17% LIV |
| 7 | 83' | Gabriel Armando de Abreu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% LIV |
| 8 | 93' | Gabriel Armando de Abreu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 55% · draw 22% · Liverpool 23%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Liverpool
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 52% · draw 21% · Liverpool 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 3, 2015-16
- Norwich 1–1 Stoke Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Man United 0–0 Newcastle Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- West Ham 3–4 Bournemouth Aug 22, 2015 · replay 83% for Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace 2–1 Aston Villa Aug 22, 2015 · replay 54% for Crystal Palace
- Leicester 1–1 Tottenham Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Sunderland 1–1 Swansea Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Everton 0–2 Man City Aug 23, 2015 · replay 71% for Man City
- Watford 0–0 Southampton Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- West Brom 2–3 Chelsea Aug 23, 2015 · replay 73% for Chelsea